Why Immigration Won't Save Japan

Why Immigration Won't Save Japan

Over at Reason, Pete Suderman has a great piece about how Japan is looking to robots to help care for its geriatric citizens. It’s funny and creepy and you should totally read it.

 

Japan probably has the worst demographic problem in the world. The country’s fertility rate has been below replacement (way below) for three generations. First, this slowed population growth to a halt; the contraction has now begun and will accelerate in the coming years. Today, Japan has just under 127 million people. If its fertility rate were to stay constant from here until the end of the century, Japan’s population would drop to 59.5 million. (Go and play with the U.N. Population Division numbers; it’s fascinating.)

 

But the real problem for Japan, as Suderman notes, isn’t total population: It’s the ratio of old people to young people, which is already skewed and will only get top-heavier with each passing year. Have a look at Japan’s population pyramid here and what you see will blow your mind: In 2050, Japan could have close to four times as many women over the age of 75 than girls under the age of 10. And that’s from the rosy-colored scenario where the fertility rate actually rebounds. If it stays constant, matters will be much worse.

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