Elections are not generally decided in the last days of a campaign. Even in April 1992, when a Labour lead in opinion polls on the eve of voting became a Tory majority the morning after, the outcome revealed longer-standing reservations about the opposition.
The “shy Tories” who put John Major back in Downing Street may have kept their allegiance secret until the moment of marking the ballot paper but that doesn’t make their motives whimsical. The gut expresses in a second judgments that have been years in digestion.
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