Can We Believe China's Surprising Growth Figures?

Can We Believe China's Surprising Growth Figures?

IT ALL seems a little too perfect to be true. The Chinese government set a growth target of “about 7%” this year. And for a second consecutive quarter, despite ample evidence of stress in its industrial sector, it managed to hit that right on its head. In the three months from April to June, the economy expanded 7% compared with the same period a year earlier. Cue the chorus of scepticism: Chinese data just cannot be trusted, goes the usual refrain. Yes and no. There is a difference between smoothing data and totally fabricating it. Evidence suggests that China is guilty of the former (the lesser charge) but not the latter (the more serious allegation).

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