Who Can Fix Japan-ROK Relations?

What, then, should we expect on 15 August? South Koreans will be attentive to how Abe addresses the colonial era. Yet, as the political backlash to Abe’s new security bills — which aim to legalise the limited exercise of collective self-defence — has devastated his ratings, he is unlikely to further antagonise his constituency. With the loss of much of the agricultural vote — due to agricultural reforms and his support of the TPP, and his waning support among moderates, Abe more than ever needs the support of his base. His base happens to be more nationalistic than mainstream society and they would resent any concessions towards South Korea. At the same time, if Abe resorts to ‘personal’ apologies — or worse, disregards historical disputes altogether — this would further deteriorate relations. In light of the various political challenges, serious moves to repair Japan-ROK relations may not be in the offing until there is a change in leadership in both countries.