There will be more refugees, no matter what. If Assad's Russian-backed campaign against non-IS rebels is successful, Sunnis will flee in their hundreds of thousands if not millions. According to Balanche, 200,000 people fled the Aleppo area alone over the last two months. If, against all odds, Assad and the non-jihadist rebels were to quickly agree a cease-fire and turn their joint fire power against IS, refugees would flee those areas, too. And if the Kurds were to succeed in their goal of seizing the IS-held territory that separates the two Kurdish zones, Arab refugees would flee Kurdish control.
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