Erdogan's Blurred Red Line on Russia

The broader problem for Putin (and for Erdogan) is that the crisis appears to have obliterated more than a decade of Russian efforts at cultivating Erdogan and Turkey as part of Moscow’s wider effort to build its regional influence and to complicate NATO decision-making. Among other things, this seems likely to cool any Russian interest in Turkey’s recent flirtation with membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, something that senior Russian officials otherwise would have welcomed as a wedge into NATO’s southeastern flank. More generally, it largely removes Ankara as a “card” in the Russian president’s already weak hand in his relations with NATO countries. Ironically, this also weakens Turkey’s leverage vis-a-vis Washington and European capitals, upon whom Erdogan now depends to an unexpected degree.