The most dramatic development in 2015 was that Iran catapulted into the ranks of the great powers, expanding their number to eight. Iran and Saudi Arabia are now engaged in a zero sum, no holds barred struggle to control the Middle East and its massive oil reserves. Falling oil prices create problems for both powers, but the combination of religious hatred and geopolitical competition ensures that both countries will give this competition everything they’ve got. In the end, either one of the two will emerge as the clear winner with a secure place on the list of great powers, or a third country (Turkey? Russia? The United States?) will capitalize on their rivalry and exhaustion to impose an order on the Gulf.
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