The idea that reformers would score serious gains is contradicted by recent polling data. Ukraine’s electorate is deeply fragmented and support for populist and nationalist parties is on the rise. A February poll of voter preferences by the Gorshenin Institute showed nine political parties capable of entering the next parliament with none backed by more than 13 percent of the electorate. Ukraine’s single-mandate districts, which represent half of the Rada seats, are also likely to result in additional fragmentation as local business interests are likely to compete or make deals with political parties to gain additional patronage advantages.
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