Project Fear worked in Scotland, because separation from the UK was a genuinely scary prospect – it would have left the new nation’s economy at the mercy of the (now-collapsed) oil price. Project Fear worked in the general election because Ed Miliband had a long list of terrifying policies, and the prospect of his being propped up by the SNP was quite real. Negative campaigning can work, if based on a powerful truth. But without the truth, fear loses its potency. Especially if voters can see that the EU’s woeful inability to handle security is making Europeans less safe.
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