Ukraine, the Dutch & the EU: The Stakes Today

Certainly, the Dutch government would have a big crisis on its hands, in the middle of its EU Presidency. Geert Wilders’ anti-EU formation Party for Freedom is already firmly leading the polls, gathering more votes than the VVD and PvdA combined. Rutte also said that if the Dutch parliament decides not to ratify the agreement – a big question mark right now – this would, according to him, be the “end of the exercise”, meaning that the EU would need to renegotiate or give up the association deal with Ukraine. That said, the trade chapters of the EU-Ukraine deal have already entered into force provisionally at the start of the year, and officials have told the Financial Times that a No-vote would leave it in force – full unanimity in the Council is needed to end provisional application. Therefore, the agreement could be stuck in limbo pending a more sustainable solution. One option would be for the Netherlands could do the dirty work for other member states and block visa free travel for Ukrainians as a condition of ratifying the Treaty and appeasing Dutch public opinion.