Only one hypothesis seems to connect all these dots — and it makes the administration’s actions look coherent and strategic. A close reading of public statements suggests that earlier this year U.S. officials became aware of a potential Chinese plan to conduct reclamation at Scarborough Shoal. Around this time, press reports noted that Admiral Harris traveled to Washington for Scarborough-related discussions with other senior U.S. national security leaders, where they seem to have devised a sensible plan for deterring China at Scarborough. This plan relied on demonstrating not only that the United States would stomach some risk of military escalation to prevent reclamation there, but also that Washington would avoid overt public pressure and give Beijing a face-saving way to climb down the escalation ladder. U.S. intentions were likely plainly communicated to the Chinese behind closed doors. Since then, rumors have swirled that this pressure may have convinced Beijing to reevaluate its original plan for Scarborough, at least for the time being.