Russia Makes a Virtue of Unpredictability

If one adds a strong degree of unpredictability, the projection of force becomes quite formidable. It is strategically important for the Kremlin to keep everyone guessing whether Russia will strike again and, if yes, where exactly. If this kind of projection is meant to compensate for military disparities between Russia and NATO, it probably serves its purpose. It also fits a broader trend as seen by Michael Kofman and Andrey Sushentsov in their recent report for the Valdai Discussion Club. “Today we see a clear trend away from strict rules of warfare or the existence of any tangible separation between war and peace,” write Kofman and Sushentsov. “There is a strong convergence between the U.S., Russia and China in the tendency to engage in indirect warfare and confrontation using the political, economic and information instruments of national power.”