A Second Scottish Referendum Is Not Inevitable

A Second Scottish Referendum Is Not Inevitable
Diane Bondareff/AP Images for Scotland Government

What does that mean for Scotland? In simple terms, £15 bn more is spent on public services in Scotland than is raised in taxes. Those are not my figures, nor George Osborne's: they are the SNP Scottish Government's. At the moment, that money is transferred every year by the UK government – part of the massive redistribution that underpins our social and economic union. If Scotland left the UK it would lose that fiscal transfer: 14 per cent of GDP would disappear. The SNP have no plausible way to fill that hole except fairy tales about high levels of growth. This would be a permanent reduction in wealth for Scots – it would make the budget consolidation of Cameron and Osborne, the so-called "austerity" cuts, seem like a picnic.

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