Washington appeared to be facing two bleak outcomes in Muslim-majority Turkey in the coming month. The military could succeed in overthrowing Mr. Erdogan, resulting in unrest if the leader's supporters, many of them religious conservatives, take to the streets.
Conversely, Mr. Erdogan could hold on to power but rule in an increasingly paranoid and authoritarian manner. He has increasingly sought control of the major institutions inside Turkey, including the media, judiciary and security forces.
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