The likeliest outcome for Cuba is American apathy. In that case, the embargo won't be lifted or even wither away, and Cuba won't continue to get special treatment (the 1966 Cuban Adjustment Act gives refugees automatic admission and legal residence after a year). Cubans clearly fear that, too. Emigration figures illustrate their worry most starkly: 26,500 Cubans have come across the U.S.-Mexican border in recent months. They are coming on tourist visas via fellow socialist paradise Ecuador, so many that Panama and Nicaragua have closed their border to Cubans.
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