More than 67 percent of Ukraine's 36.3 million voters went to the polls on Sunday to cast their ballots for the country's next president. According to the preliminary findings of various official European observer groups, Ukraine's election was of "high quality" and showed "significant progress over previous elections." As expected, none of the 18 candidates secured enough votes to win in the first round, necessitating a second round between the two top vote-getters: former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, who came in first with 35.34 percent of the vote, and current Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko, who captured 25.04 percent. Current President Viktor Yushchenko came in fifth with 5.45 percent of the vote, reflecting resounding disappointment with his leadership since the 2004 Orange Revolution.
Businessman and former Central Bank Governor Serhey Tyhypko, whose support grew over the last few weeks of the campaign, came in third, only 12 percent behind Tymoshenko at 13.05 percent, making him a potential key player in determining the country's next president. Arseniy Yatseniuk, former foreign minister and chairman of the Ukrainian parliament, the Rada, came in a disappointing fourth, at 6.96 percent after his campaign cratered over the summer and fall.
Observing the elections unofficially, a study group of the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) this past week visited Crimea (Sevastopol and Simferopol) and Kyiv and came away feeling that Ukraine has made major strides in its democratic development. Even in Crimea, where reports often appear about Russia stirring up problems, the situation seemed calm. The candidates in this election had to go out and really earn voters' support in what proved to be a vibrant and competitive campaign. While not perfect, the election, as the European observers noted on Monday, met Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and Council of Europe commitments for open, fair elections conducted on a level playing field. That is more than can be said for the presidential election here five years ago and more than virtually any other post-Soviet state can claim.
While surveys suggested Yanukovych would come out on top in the election, few analysts before voting day were willing to make firm predictions about who the country's next president would be. That uncertainty was refreshing in a region where the outcome of elections is often known well before the voters go to the polls. While hailing the quality of the first round of elections, observers, during the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights press conference on Monday, strongly recommended that no changes be made to the electoral laws between now and February 7.
A Yanukovych-Tymoshenko showdown does not rival the race in 2004 between Yanukovych and Yushchenko. During that campaign, Yushchenko was mysteriously poisoned and hundreds of thousands of protestors turned out into the streets to demonstrate against efforts by the Yanukovych camp to steal the election. This time around, nothing came close to the theatrics of five years ago; very few expect a repeat of the Orange Revolution after the second round. The campaign, in fact, has been rather routine so far (some would even say boring), but it also has featured a less polarizing race than that five years ago. Many have said that this is a true testament to the state of Ukraine's nascent democracy.
Both Yanukovych and Tymoshenko talk about improving relations with Russia, which deteriorated under Yushchenko. Both also talk about deepening ties with the European Union and the United States while at the same time not pushing for membership in NATO. Yanukovych has also stated that he would establish the Russian language as Ukraine's second official language, but this would require Rada approval and could prove divisive.
Ukraine's economic crisis has been the central issue in the campaign, and Tymoshenko, as prime minister, has been blamed for much of the country's difficulties (including by Yushchenko who attacked his former Orange Revolution partner relentlessly and viciously throughout the entire campaign). The next president will need to work quickly to address the country's failing economy, which many analysts see as the top priority. Corruption, judicial reform, the fate of the Black Sea fleet, and energy security are also big issues, and constitutional reform will need to be addressed down the road. Ukraine's institutions are in serious need of strengthening, but Ukraine has demonstrated that it can get elections right. Overall, domestic issues have been dominant throughout the campaign and will remain so in the lead-up to the second round.
During a press conference held by Tymoshenko after the polls closed on Sunday, her team prominently posted the results of one of the exit polls showing the gap between her and Yanukovych at just over 4 percent. By the next morning, the mood dramatically shifted after those numbers proved to be seriously off base-the Central Election Commission results revealed a difference more than twice that. The atmosphere in Kyiv, as a result, changed significantly: when people went to bed Sunday night, the race was deemed closer than expected; when they awoke Monday, they learned that Tymoshenko's deficit had climbed to double digits, an important threshold psychologically. Consequently, many analysts in Kyiv on Monday were talking about a much steeper hill for Tymoshenko to climb, and even people aligned with her campaign admitted she might not be able to pull off victory in the second round. The Yanukovych campaign, by comparison, seemed confident and relaxed. But Tymoshenko, a better campaigner than Yanukovych, should not be underestimated, and Yanukovych cannot afford to take a complacent approach to the second round.
Both top candidates are likely to seek the endorsement of those who came in behind them. Tyhypko's support may be especially important, and it cannot be ruled out that both candidates will offer him a key position in the next government, maybe even prime minister, in exchange for his support. Support from voters who favored Yatseniuk and Yushchenko will also play an important role in the second round. There is even talk of agreement on a grand coalition, although perhaps not until after the second round, whereby Tymoshenko, unlikely as it may seem, would stay on as prime minister under a Yanukovych presidency. More likely, should Yanukovych win, there will be new parliamentary elections sometime this year; the new Rada would then select the new premier. Another round of local elections is scheduled for May 30 anyway, and it's possible that the Rada elections will be combined with those. Yet, another nationwide election would be an unnecessary distraction for Ukraine, given the need to address the country's urgent economic situation. Should Tymoshenko pull off an upset, new Rada elections are less likely.
Regardless of who wins, the West should engage Ukraine's next president immediately, not out of a sense of competition with Moscow but because there is much that the West and Ukraine need to do. For too long, Ukraine's relations with Washington, Berlin, Brussels, and other European capitals have been confounded by Ukraine's endless political battles and feuding, providing Western governments with convenient reasons to delay serious engagement. Yes, Ukrainian leaders can be frustrating to deal with, but developments in this country matter greatly for Europe as a whole and require ending the wait-and-see approach.
Ukrainians will return to the polls February 7 for the second round. Barring court challenges and assuming a winner emerges from another free and fair process, Ukraine will have had its fourth good election (the runoff in 2004 and two parliamentary elections in 2006 and 2007). Ukraine once again will have demonstrated an ability consistently to hold decent elections. Now the test will be whether its new leaders are up to the test of governing equally well.
