HONG KONG -- China's "One Country, Two Systems," approach to the governance of Hong Kong has always made for an uneasy partnership. Now, as the People's Republic continues its ongoing battle with Google over that company's decision to reroute users to its uncensored Hong Kong site, Hong Kongers have reignited their fight for universal suffrage, once again testing the relationship. However, this time around, there may be more at stake for Beijing than just some disgruntled neighbors to the south.
John Delury, associate director of Asia Society's Center on U.S.-China Relations, says that there are two different ways in which the current situation with Google can be viewed. According to one perspective, Beijing is allowing Hong Kong to function as a vent, releasing pressure on a tense situation, but ultimately containing free expression.
"You've got this standoff between Google and China. This is a compromise, a workaround," Delury says.
On the other hand, the rerouting of Google.cn users to Google.com.hk can also be seen as a victory for Hong Kong's pro-democracy camps. "It strengthens Hong Kong's credentials as this bulwark of openness," Delury says.
And more openness is exactly what a majority of Hong Kongers want. In recent months, some Hong Kong legislators have tried to push their ongoing dialogue on democratization with the mainland leadership. In a symbolic move designed to force Beijing's hand, some members of the pan-democratic coalition resigned from the Legislative Council, triggering a by-election that is intended to call attention to the issue of universal suffrage.
That has been a goal for many in Hong Kong since the 1997 handover, when universal suffrage at some undefined future point was promised in the Basic Law. Currently, only half of the 60 elected council members are chosen by geographical constituencies. The remaining half are chosen by "functional constituencies," comprised of various interest groups such as the finance and IT sectors. Though the pan-democrats' move has garnered little international attention, some China-watchers see Beijing's impending reaction as a possible road map for future policy reform on the mainland.
When five legislators resigned from their positions in late January, Beijing issued a strongly worded statement against the action, but has been silent since then. Eliza Lee, an associate professor at Hong Kong University, says we should expect continued silence from PRC leadership until tensions die down and by-elections have come and gone without incident. But that doesn't mean the PRC is not paying attention and quietly sending directives to pro-Beijing camps within the Hong Kong government.
To be sure, if Hong Kongers are indeed granted universal suffrage, fundamental questions will loom large, such as who will select the candidates that appear on ballots and what role business interest groups will have in the process. Currently these groups have a heavy hand in selecting Hong Kong leadership. Lee says she believes Hong Kongers are sophisticated enough not to settle for anything less than true, unadulterated democracy, and that Beijing should embrace that.
Though counterintuitive, Lee says studies show that the fastest way to shut down radicalism is by giving more freedoms, which in turn placates agitated groups who were previously seeking extreme reform. Whether or not reforms are allowed, one thing is certain, according to Lee: A failure by Beijing to at least engage in a dialogue would reveal the limits of Hong Kongers' mainly moderate approach, potentially leading to a rise in radicalism.
Observers largely agree that the main fear for Beijing is the spillover effect. Peter Cheung, an associate professor at Hong Kong University says that if Hong Kong is granted more liberties, it will only be a matter of time before mainlanders expect the same. By granting freedoms in a controlled fashion, the PRC government has a golden opportunity to use Hong Kong as an experiment in democracy, in which it can call all of the shots while taking copious notes in preparation for the day that reform ultimately comes to the mainland. Singapore is often used as a model by which China would like to grow -- efficient, pollution-free and unabashedly censored. But the advantages of first experimenting in Hong Kong are profound.
Historically, Hong Kong has derived much of its value to the outside world by serving as a crossroads between the West and the mainland, offering a point of entry to the former while enjoying the resulting trade benefits with the latter. However, even this aspect of the Hong Kong-Beijing relationship is changing due to Shanghai's rise to prominence as China's flagship commercial center, the position long held by Hong Kong. "Beijing has to manage that [relationship]," Delury says. "It's inevitable that Shanghai overshadows Hong Kong, but doing it in a way that doesn't drive Hong Kong out or down [will be key]."
For now, though, the symbiotic nature of the relationship remains. As a result, it is highly unlikely that Hong Kong might become another Taiwan if not granted suffrage. Nevertheless, the Special Administrative Region can still play an adversarial role if not given what its citizens demand. Beijing's recent row with Google has highlighted the leverage that Hong Kong can still exert, and focused attention on the longstanding double standard that exists between citizens of the mainland and Hong Kong. Delury says that the web-savvy subset on the mainland is watching the battle closely and could become another constituency pushing for the spillover of Hong Kong's long-enjoyed freedoms if the re-routing of Google's services is allowed to stand.
The next benchmark in this ongoing dialogue is set for 2017, the date by which Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang has said he believes Hong Kongers will be ready for universal suffrage. But seven years is a long time, not just in a rapidly changing global landscape, but also for a China morphing and developing at break-neck speed. With a new Chinese leadership mandate beginning in 2012, observers continue to watch the question of Hong Kong's democratization for clues about how Beijing might manage possible democratization on the mainland itself.
