As Muammar Gaddafi's forces roll towards Benghazi, we may have reached a turning point in the Arab spring.
That term could already be out of date. We may have to reassess the whole meaning of the Arab and north African uprisings.
Ousting Gaddafi, the Arab world's most bizarre dictator, seemed inevitable a few weeks ago but is now extremely problematic.
If we are very lucky, the Libyan rebels may hold on to some territory in the east. A no-fly zone would at best help perpetuate a stalemate.
Gaddafi has the oil, the money and the guns. At this stage, moral strength is no match for these resources.
The net result of the Arab and Islamic spring could easily be that Gaddafi survives, along with the regime of the mullahs in Iran, in the face of overwhelming opposition from their respective populations, while the much more moderate dictatorships of Egypt and Tunisia fall.
At its most cynical, this could once again give life to Henry Kissinger's bleak observation that to be an enemy of the US is dangerous, but to be a friend can be fatal.
Yet Gaddafi's gruesome success, which will entail terrible revenge against the people who rose up against him, will allow all Arab dictatorships a wider space to manoeuvre.
Washington is in conflict with the Gulf states over how the Bahrain government should respond to protesters. After uncertainty and regime reversals, finally the Bahrainis have invited Saudi and other gulf nation military personnel in to clear their streets of protesters.
The Gulf nations are ignoring Washington's advice to reform and avoid confrontation, but that advice will now not rise above polite disagreement from the US.
For in a sense, Gaddafi licenses Bahrain. "If you cannot get rid of Gaddafi, why should you get rid of us?" is the unanswerable question Bahrain's royal family can now ask of Washington. This, too, will influence what the militaries allow in Egypt and Tunisia. The fall of a president in each country is not the same as the establishment of democracy. In Libya, it may be that the West missed its chance to assist a reform movement that would have been grateful for help.
If this push for democracy fails, will it still be democracy that the Arabs push for next time their societies are convulsed? Was Washington's sublime inaction and prudence disaster averted or a historic opportunity missed?
A lot of bloodshed is still to come in Libya. Gaddafi seems to have secured himself by the most old-fashioned of methods: the brutal use of superior force.
This is not a good lesson for other Arab or Persian dictators, or for putative democrats.
