Japan's ruling Democratic Party has just lost two sets of local elections. Candidates either from or allied with the opposition Liberal Democratic Party won governorships in major prefectures, and the DPJ lost 70% of its mayoral contests against the LDP. While the elections were not a referendum on Prime Minister Naoto Kan's stewardship of the post-earthquake crisis, it was a broader judgment on his record. More importantly, it was a test of the public's faith in the DPJ to rebuild the country. Mr. Kan has clearly received failing marks.
Now more than 60 DPJ members, including former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, are pressuring Mr. Kan to resign. Mr. Hatoyama, who was replaced by Mr. Kan in MONTH/YEAR?, has been harsh in his public criticism while those still loyal to DPJ kingpin Ichiro Ozawa continue to undermine the premier. The LDP has also been demanding that Mr. Kan step down.
Yet public opinion polls do not show overwhelming support for the LDP, nor for any other politicians. Rather, it is the same faces that are struggling for power, while the public loses confidence in any of Japan's elected officials. Pundits are growing weary of repeating the same criticisms of politicians, while Japanese are used to having the headlines proclaim the eclipse of the country. The trauma and damage of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami have only added to the long-term economic woes of the country, despite the often heroic response of the Japanese people.
Given the years of political frustration and irresolution, Japan's voters might be forgiven for asking: Where is their Chris Christie? New Jersey's Republican governor has riled many an opponent in America and his blunt approach to balancing his state's budget has led to a split in public opinion. Yet, in an overwhelmingly Democratic state, Mr. Christie has nonetheless maintained the support of nearly half the polled electorate, while taking on teachers' unions and other his own bureaucrats.
Most importantly, however, Mr. Christie has chosen relentlessly to tell the unpleasant truth to all listeners and has not hesitated to take on budgetary sacred cows. Time will tell whether Mr. Christie's approach will work or whether he will run afoul of the voters. What is undisputable, though, is that he is a politician unafraid to speak honestly to the voters and to adopt politically unpopular policies.
Perhaps the only Japanese politician in recent years who has captured the fancy of the Japanese electorate was Junichiro Koizumi, who was prime minister from 2001 through 2006. His shoot-from-the-hip style and declared willingness to "destroy" his own party if it didn't adopt reform policies led to a major electoral victory in 2005.
But Mr. Koizumi, for all his flash and fire, not only built on the policies of his predecessors, but in the end did not succeed particularly well in transforming the economy. The export-driven policies that led to several years of growth in the last decade were quickly undone by the 2008 global economic crisis. Most disappointingly, Mr. Koizumi failed to permanently changing the culture of the LDP, and he was followed by a string of failed premiers, leading to the victory of the DPJ in August 2009.
Now the DPJ, too, faces the wrath of the voters. It has lost two leaders in just two years-Messrs. Ozawa and Hatoyama-and few believe Mr. Kan can hang on much longer. The party is deeply split, and factions are forming that portend more bitter infighting. This at a time when the country desperately needs a unified, innovative leadership that can instill confidence and forge the policies needed to rebuild and grow.
There may be some promise on the horizon. One who has leapt to prominence is Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano, who has become the most public face of the government during the crisis. Whereas Mr. Kan was criticized for playing a more behind-the-scenes role, Mr. Edano faced the press and the television audience daily. Polls show that the public holds Mr. Edano in high regard.
As Mr. Edano is just 47 years old, he is part of the younger generation of DPJ members. Compared to Messrs. Kan, Ozawa, and Hatoyama, all of whom are in their 60s, Mr. Edano represents the next era for Japan's political system.
Others in the DPJ who have come to the public eye include former Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara, long considered a leader of the younger generation, and who is expected to return to the center of power before long; and Goshi Hosono, who was just appointed special minister in charge of the nuclear crisis, thereby becoming the point man dealing with Tepco, the utility that runs the Fukushima nuclear plant.
In Japan's parliamentary system, few national leaders rise from the ranks of local leadership, such as mayors or governors. It would take a crisis far graver than today's to change how the parties nominate their leaders.
Either way, though, a generational change will eventually have to come to Japanese politics. Whether those that eventually take over the DPJ, or the LDP for that matter, will be as factionally driven and uninspiring as their elders or whether they become Japan's Chris Christie, may spell the difference between a Japan that remains a great power and one that simply lives off its dwindling inheritance. When put in those terms, Japan's younger politicians should recognize the stakes and not hesitate to boldly shake up their society.
