3. What is the political roadmap ahead in Afghanistan and the broader region?
The bigger questions of a sustainable power-sharing arrangement in Afghanistan remain largely unresolved with much of the focus and energy in the debate on U.S. troop levels.
The security gains achieved in certain parts of Afghanistan by the additional troops are not likely to sustain themselves without forward momentum on resolving power-sharing disputes between competing factions, helping Afghans build sustainable institutions and political processes that address their competing interests peacefully, and obtaining buy-in and support from regional powers for this political roadmap.
In recent months, there has been a lot of talk about reconciliation and reintegration of Afghan insurgent groups. But these processes seem to be in the very early stages. Less than 10 percent of insurgents are reported to have entered reintegration efforts targeted at lower-level fighters, and the quiet diplomacy with elements of the Taliban is faced with daunting hurdles including understanding their real independence from certain actors in Pakistan and assessing the internal coherence and bottom lines of organizations that have had their ranks and leadership hit hard in military strikes.
The Obama administration needs to map out a strategy that links the questions of power sharing, reconciliation, and reintegration with the unresolved questions for reforming Afghanistan's political system and obtains regional support. In mapping out this strategy, the Obama administration needs to use all of the leverage it has to motivate parties to move toward a peaceful arrangement. The bilateral strategic framework agreement proposed between the United States and Afghanistan offers an opportunity to create incentives for Afghan President Hamid Karzai and other Afghan leaders to implement reform.
4. What does a viable and sustainable economic strategy for Afghanistan look like?
The current policy of spending billions of dollars in Afghanistan has fostered a dysfunctional culture of dependency on aid from the United States and other countries. The recent Senate Foreign Relations Committee majority staff report underscored many of the problems with how the United States has funded Afghan development and reconstruction.
As the United States and other countries decrease their commitments and move to a period of transition in Afghanistan-a transition that remains ill defined-that transition needs to safeguard against the risk of an economic depression resulting in Afghanistan as foreign troops withdraw. Afghanistan's economy today is largely driven and supported by war spending and development assistance, and a key part of the transition is helping Afghans craft a sustainable economic strategy.
5. What is the estimated cost to mission completion for the United States on Afghanistan?
As importantly, the Obama administration needs to provide Americans with greater clarity on the additional resources necessary to complete the mission. How much taxpayer money, time, and personnel from the military and civilian agencies will be needed to achieve the outcomes needed to keep America safe?
President Obama has stated repeatedly that the policy objective is to "disrupt, dismantle, and defeat Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan." But the administration has not yet clearly defined what it strives to leave behind in both countries to achieve that goal. Nor has it provided even a ballpark estimate of how much more it will cost or how much time that will take.
President Obama may have a few surprises up his sleeve tomorrow in his Afghanistan announcement. And perhaps he will offer more clarity in answering some of the five questions outlined above. The question of how many troops are starting to come home from Afghanistan is only the tip of the iceberg of broader issues the United States needs to address in Afghanistan and the region.
