Despite such fiery rhetoric, the Islamic Republic has been extremely cautious about taking any concrete steps regarding the crisis. Iranian-government-connected groups organized two flotillas to Bahrain in support of Shiite dissidents, but both turned back, evidently under orders from Tehran. And in the wake of opposition setbacks on the island, Iran might once again be forced to restore normal relations with Manama. In fact, widespread rumors in Tehran indicated that the Bahraini king's special envoy traveled to Iran on June 23, though the Iranian Foreign Ministry denied it.
In short, when it comes to Shiite protests in Bahrain, the Islamic Republic's national interests appear to have trumped its ideological ambitions. Tehran was constrained in part by harsh statements from GCC countries openly blaming Iran for the unrest, breaking from their usual caution about such accusations. In one joint statement, for example, GCC foreign ministers said they were "deeply worried about continuing Iranian meddling" in their region, arguing that "Iran's interference in Bahrain's internal affairs is in violation of international conventions and rules of good neighborliness."
Such statements are indicative of the region-wide dissolution of support for Iran. For example, Tehran no doubt took notice of the recent parliamentary no-confidence vote in Kuwait, where Prime Minister Nasser Muhammad al-Ahmad al-Sabah narrowly survived removal from office. Among other issues, some legislators had accused Sabah of boosting ties with Iran rather than with the GCC. Tehran is also likely worried about its relations with Arab countries outside the GCC -- especially Egypt, where it hopes to normalize relations following Mubarak's ouster. And more generally, Tehran wants to avoid being seen as igniting sectarian conflict in the Arab world, whether in Bahrain or elsewhere.
So far, however, the Bahrain crisis has hurt the Islamic Republic's relations with Arab governments and endangered its image among Shiites, given Tehran's ineptitude in providing help for Shiite dissidents and protecting them from Sunni violence. Many Arab Shiites expect Iran to act as the protector of their coreligionists throughout the region. And several groups of Bahraini clerics have written to Khamenei urging him to help the island's Shiites. This included a March 16 letter signed by "followers of Grand Ayatollah Khamenei in Bahrain" and widely published in the Iranian media, asking the Supreme Leader to help his "children and followers in Bahrain in any appropriate way." The letter also asked, "Who do we have to talk with about our suffering?" Yet there is no evidence that Khamenei has responded to this appeal.
Overall, the Bahraini crisis has been an important test of Iran's pro-Shiite propaganda. The Islamic Republic's policy toward Shiite communities in the region has shown itself to be quite complicated and increasingly muddled. The result has been mounting Shiite suspicion toward Iran -- not only in Bahrain, but also in places such as southwestern Saudi Arabia -- regarding the extent to which they can rely on Tehran to assist them in the event of confrontation with their governments.
