With more than 1,400 of his country's citizens killed in three months of protests, the president of Syria gave a speech on 20 June. It was the third time that Bashar al-Assad had addressed the nation since the Arab Spring reached Syria, but his renewed promises of dialogue and reform failed to convince the opposition; four days later they staged the biggest day of protest yet against the regime. The situation inside Syria has continued to deteriorate, especially after a violent crackdown in the northern town of Jisr al-Shughour and an exodus of thousands to Turkey. But despite concerns of a growing humanitarian crisis, the international response has been very different to that in Libya.
The consensus that led to military action over Libya has never existed where Syria is concerned. The country is a geostrategic linchpin, and instability there has greater ramifications for the region. The West's limited leverage over Damascus has forced it to tread softly, while the so-called Libya hangover effect has further dampened any aspirations to intervene. Permanent UN Security Council members Russia and China feel that the resolution allowing 'all necessary measures' to prevent a humanitarian disaster in Libya was 'over-interpreted'. So while the United States and the European Union have placed sanctions on the Syrian regime, they have failed to obtain a UN resolution condemning Syria for its brutal crackdown on protests.
From bad to worse
Syria's powerful security apparatus was able to contain smaller demonstrations in February inspired by the protests in Tunisia and Egypt; indeed it may have deterred some early protests. But in mid-March, civilians were killed by security forces in protests in the southwestern town of Deraa, and the uprising gained momentum. Marchers demanded 'hurriyya' (freedom) across scores of cities, including Baniyas and Latakia on the western coast, Hama and Homs further south, and, to a lesser extent, the capital Damascus.
The government made some concessions to the opposition, releasing political prisoners and lifting an emergency law that had been in place since the ruling Baath Party seized power in 1963. However, as more protesters were killed in security crackdowns their funerals became focal points for further demonstrations. On 22 April, dubbed 'Great Friday' by human-rights activists, mass protests were organised across the country. Three days later, tanks rolled into Deraa, beginning a lengthy siege. Throughout the country, more than 10,000 protesters have been arbitrarily imprisoned.
Two events fuelled the latest violence. There was outrage and intensified protest over the torture and death of Hamza al-Khatib, a 13-year-old boy detained by the intelligence services in late May during a march against the ongoing Deraa siege. Meanwhile, the deaths of security personnel during a stand-off in early June in the northern town of Jisr al-Shughour were followed by another government decision to send in tanks. As troops moved across the surrounding countryside, burning fields and crops en route, thousands of residents fled into neighbouring Turkey.
With foreign journalists banned from Syria, it has been difficult to evaluate conflicting government and opposition accounts of events. In his 20 June speech, Assad blamed 'saboteurs' for the recent violence, while official spokespeople have repeatedly claimed that Syria is facing an armed insurgency or religiously motivated terrorists bent on implementing a foreign plot to overthrow the regime. The opposition, however, insists it is peaceful and says the security personnel who died were trying to defect when they were shot by regime loyalists.
Jisr al-Shughour was a perfect example of the thick fog of this war. Syrian state media reported that armed groups inside the city attacked a police station, leading to violent clashes and the death of 120 security personnel. Residents say instead that the dead security personnel were army recruits who refused to fire on protesters and were shot in the back by intelligence officers. This latter version was apparently borne out in a video posted on YouTube, in which an officer of the army's 11th battalion announced his defection, but rumours still abound. (A BBC investigation may be the closest yet to a full account, although the idea that there is some truth to both sides' accounts has been put forward elsewhere.)
All of this makes it more difficult to understand what might happen next in Syria. Some government attempts at media management might strain credulity, and it is tempting to compare Assad's speechifying and unfulfilled promises of reform to that of Tunisia's ousted Zine el Abidine Ben Ali and Egypt's Hosni Mubarak. However, the army's decision not to back the regime against protesters was crucial in both those revolutions, and in Syria it is unclear just how far away such a development might be.
