Part of the problem facing the Venezuelan opposition, or any other potential Chavez rival, is to find a leader able to fill or challenge the political space Chavez has created for himself. Chavez has crafted an image as a "man of the people" and has access to all the resources of the state. He has created a system and a structure that have prevented anyone else's rise to power. Since the causes of the economic challenges facing the country are deeply entwined with the populist politics of redistribution, it is difficult to articulate a political platform contrary to Chavez without directly recalling the neoliberal reforms that triggered the Caracazo of 1989.
As a result, the outlook for a post-Chavez Venezuela is uncertain. Serious factional divisions within the Chavista elite portend a real threat of violence. To avoid a complete destabilization of the country after Chavez leaves the scene, a number of things must happen. Any successor government must engage in serious negotiations with the stakeholders in the Chavez government. The needs of those who survive on state welfare - as well as the new "boliburguesia" (Chavistas who have become rich thanks to the strictures of the current system) - will have to be accounted for and folded into any transition of power. The proper balance will involve awkward contradictions. The very economic distortions that allow some to get rich may also delay housing projects or create food scarcities. The policies causing economic distortions will have to be carefully unwound to ensure the whole system doesn't collapse.
No individual exists right now with the leadership qualities to match Chavez. No one within the ranks of Chavez's inner circle appears capable of installing pragmatic policies while also inspiring the loyalty of Venezuelans. Certain factions may have the support of the military, but a return to a military dictatorship will inevitably cause bloodshed. Nevertheless, negotiations are ongoing to find common ground between the many interested groups, and a compromise candidate may yet arise.
How quickly Chavez's health deteriorates and whether he will be able to run for the presidency again in 2012, will determine Venezuela's future stability. In the meantime, other candidates will begin to step forward from both the left and the right wings of Venezuelan society, as each prepares for a Venezuela beyond Chavez.
