How and why sustained high economic growth in developing countries took hold are questions likely to be debated by economic historians for many decades. Already one can point to a number of probable sources emerging or accelerating around the turn of the century: an investment boom triggered by rising commodity prices; high growth spillovers originating from large open emerging economies that utilize cross-border supply chains; diversification into novel export markets from cut flowers to call centres; spread of new technologies, in particular rapid adoption of cell phones; increased public and private investment in infrastructure; the cessation of a number of conflicts and improved political stability; and the abandonment of inferior growth strategies such as import substitution for a focus on macroeconomic health and improved competitiveness.
These factors are manifestations of a set of broader trends - the rise of globalisation, the spread of capitalism and the improving quality of economic governance - which together have enabled the developing world to begin converging on advanced economy incomes after centuries of divergence. The poor countries that display the greatest success today are those that are engaging with the global economy, allowing market prices to balance supply and demand and to allocate scarce resources, and pursuing sensible and strategic economic policies to spur investment, trade and job creation. It's this potent combination that sets the current period apart from a history of insipid growth and intractable poverty.
The fight against poverty has long been a moral and strategic goal of Western governments. But the record of the last few years is likely a surprise to them. In their eyes, the fate of the world's poor largely depended on forging progress on three fronts: debt relief, more aid and freer trade. World leaders convened at numerous meetings to build support and momentum around these priorities, but despite these efforts successes were hard to come by: While more than $80 billion of poor countries' debt has been forgiven, most countries failed to meet global aid targets, and the Doha Development Round has languished at the World Trade Organization.
Thankfully for the world's poor, this logic turned out to be flawed. While progress on each of the three fronts would have been helpful for developing countries and their ability to tackle poverty, the significance of each was undoubtedly overhyped and said more about the West's sense of responsibility and magnanimity than what was actually needed to deliver development.
Taking a long view of history, the dramatic fall in poverty witnessed over the preceding six years represents a precursor to a new era. We're on the cusp of an age of mass development, which will see the world transformed from being mostly poor to mostly middle class. The implications of such a change will be far-reaching, touching everything from global business opportunities to environmental and resource pressures to our institutions of global governance. Yet fundamentally it's a story about billions of people around the world finally having the chance to build better lives for themselves and their children. We should consider ourselves fortunate to be alive at such a remarkable moment.
