Another area that should get more money is external affairs. Only €100 billion are earmarked in the Commission's proposal. Although the biggest increase is foreseen for neighbourhood policies, the money will not be enough for the EU to implement its ambitious new neighbourhood policy that it started drawing up in the wake of the Arab spring. Similarly, the €8.7 billion foreseen for dealing with migration is inadequate for a European immigration policy that would help to save the Schengen area of free movement.
The EU should also spend more on its economic priorities. Allocated amounts for R&D and innovation are supposed to rise from €55 billion in the last MFF to €80 billion in 2014-20. This is welcome but still inadequate for a continent whose future prosperity will depend on staying at the technological frontier. For the first time, the EU budget will contain a sizeable pot of money for infrastructure investments: the €40 billion of the new 'connecting Europe facility' are supposed to attract a multiple in public (for example from the European Investment Bank) and private investments (perhaps from pension funds) to improve European transport, energy and communications infrastructure. However, about half of the €40 billion will go to transport infrastructure - an area where waste has been a big problem in the past. The money would be better spent on information and communication technology in the EU's less developed countries and on constructing an EU-wide energy market and preparing for the addition of large amounts of renewables to the European power sector.
Alas, the chances that the 27 EU governments will agree on radical budget reform before 2014 are slim. European budget talks are always heated but today's political environment is particularly toxic. First, most EU nations are in the process of pushing through painful budget cuts at home and want the Commission to do the same (to its credit, the Commission suggests to cut its staff by 5 per cent but since administration accounts for only 6 per cent of total EU spending, this will be largely symbolic). Second, the Lisbon treaty has given the European Parliament new powers over the budget process, which - if recent moves are anything to go by - it will use to push for higher spending. "The European Parliament is full of spokespeople for individual policy interests whose demands will add up to more than the available budget money", predicts one British journalist.
Third, the euro crisis has left many people in the richer EU countries opposed to any kind transfers to poorer countries. The grants earmarked for cohesion in the EU budget are peanuts compared with the loan guarantees in the rescue packages put together for Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Yet in the minds of many Europeans, these blend into one. In particular Germany, traditionally the 'paymaster' of Europe, will be in no mood to throw in extra billions to lubricate a compromise on the EU budget. Finally, with presidential elections due in France next year, the chances that Paris will move on CAP reform are slim. In London, meanwhile, Prime Minister Cameron will be under heavy pressure from his eurosceptic party base to retain the British rebate and keep budget spending low. A bilateral deal whereby France keeps its farm payments while Britain retains its rebates would allow for a compromise but spell the death knell for EU budget reform.
The Commission has added further fuel to the political fire by making some bold proposals for new 'own resources', EU jargon for money that the Union collects directly for the EU budget, for example from customs duties or sugar levies. The Commission now wants member-states to discuss whether the EU could raise money from a new VAT levy and from a financial transaction tax. A German diplomat calls the proposals simply "not acceptable" while a British one dismisses them as an "amusing distraction". A financial transaction tax would impact heavily on the UK - disproportionately so in the view of the UK government. Since any new own resources need unanimity among the 27 governments, the chances of the Commission's proposal making it into the new MFF are close to zero.
The Commission's proposals succeed in trying to please as many political masters as possible. The price that Brussels has paid for this is an unambitious, backward looking budget package. A European Union that must deal with a public finance crisis, an unstable neighbourhood, diminishing legitimacy and declining global competitiveness must do better. And David Cameron should provide the leadership. France has a presidential election in 2012, and Germany a federal election in 2013, so President Sarkozy and Chancellor Merkel are boxed in by the demands of electioneering. UK foreign secretary William Hague - no fan of Brussels - has said that the EU should do more to control climate change. So the British government should argue that significantly more should be spent on climate control, and significantly less on the CAP, and that if genuine budget reform is on the table, the UK rebate is up for re-negotiation.
