The answer, many argue, is that Beijing's base-building ambitions are largely defensive in nature - designed to offset China's sea-lane vulnerabilities by deploying PLAN assets to challenge rivals' sea lanes. Acutely aware of the strangulation threat Indian and US forces pose to Beijing's Indo-Pacific energy supply lines, some Chinese strategists have advocated offshore naval bases as a means of protecting China's economic interests overseas. As forward bases would permit Chinese warships to wield some "tit-for-tat" coercive power over Indian and American vessels, Beijing's modest objective would be to project limited sea power for deterrence - not to position the PLAN for great power confrontations.
Yet China is unlikely to achieve even this limited goal. As the prevailing Indian Ocean power balance is tilted in favor of Washington and New Delhi, Beijing's capacity to influence international sea lanes remains grossly inferior. While India and the US boast multiple carrier strike-groups, nuclear submarines and experienced blue-water fleets - supported by US bases in Bahrain and Diego Garcia - China's nascent navy is only beginning to project power abroad. Even if PLAN warships were one day able to contest Indian Ocean sea lanes, the US Fifth Fleet would still hold a geopolitical advantage - exercising, as it does, near-total control over access to the Persian Gulf source of China's hydrocarbon lifeline.
But what about three decades from now? Might a militarized "string of pearls" form part of a longer-term strategy to project Chinese strategic weight west of Malacca?
While current geopolitical and military obstacles appear unlikely to be overcome any time soon, it's true that Beijing's Indian Ocean objectives are not purely commercial. Chinese leaders are reticent to continue outsourcing their nation's sea-lane security to US and Indian flotillas. As concerns about energy security intensify, Beijing will almost certainly seek a more permanent naval presence in the Indian Ocean. At a minimum, this will require access to deep-water ports for PLAN vessels to rest, refuel and possibly refit. This could, of course, be achieved by negotiating long-term berthing arrangements at various South Asian ports. Yet it would be foolish to ignore the strategic advantages of full-fledged naval bases. In the future, a stronger China may well make this calculation - motivated perhaps by growing strategic anxieties or a bellicose turn in its foreign policy. While Beijing's proclivity for financing commercial ports does not necessarily portend this worrisome future, China's stake in well-situated South Asian harbors offers a number of ship-ready options for eventual expansion.
Whatever naval facilities are developed over time, it's difficult to envisage a scenario in which Beijing would be willing to undermine maritime security in the Indian Ocean. China is destined to face mounting energy demands, compelling it to acquire new resources, trade routes and the means to defend both. Dependence on seaborne energy supplies is likely to instill in Beijing - like the US, India and other maritime powers - a powerful incentive for stability at sea. While the myth of a Chinese "string of pearls" will continue to trouble US and Indian analysts, it's important to recall that all Indo-Pacific states depend on unfettered Indian Ocean trade. Asia's greatest challenge is not to position naval forces in preparation for conflict, but to defuse maritime tensions for the sake of regional order.
