But the Israel lobby is increasingly marginal to the US relationship with the Jewish state. It has money and clout among the Democrats, but it has relatively few voters. What is vital is the Christian Right's new embrace of Israel as part of a global Judaeo-Christian alliance against Islam. Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee have both openly supported more aggressive settlement of the West Bank - because they believe an influx of Jews to the Holy Land is a precursor to the "end times" that no Christian should prevent.
Last week, at an extraordinary press conference, Republican frontrunner Rick Perry stood proudly among the leaders of the settler movement and said: "I also, as a Christian, have a clear directive to support Israel, so from my perspective it's pretty easy."
The facts on the ground, the policies of the Israeli government and the shifts in the Arab world are all irrelevant to Perry and the base of his party. The "directive" to back any Israeli government in anything it chooses is divinely ordained. A June poll of US evangelicals found nearly half believe the establishment of the state of Israel was a crucial step on the path to Jesus's second coming. Many cite Genesis. "And I will bless them that bless (Israel), and curse him that curseth (Israel)" - and, to them, biblical Israel includes Judaea and Samaria: that is, the West Bank. Their faith commands them to back the settlements as powerfully as it does the settlers themselves.
This is the domestic pincer movement that killed Obama's promise. With Democrats terrified of losing donors and Republicans engaged in pure theology-as-national-security, we're lucky that Obama has had the guts - or naivety - to hang in there at all.
His only chance now is a second term and a different Israeli government, by which time we could be in the midst of another intifada, the Arab democracies could have ended peace deals with Israel and the US could have lost crucial allies in the region, along with global credibility.
Of course, compared with a Perry presidency, in which the US might eagerly support an Israeli attack on Iran as part of a Judaeo-Christian religious alliance against Islam, that would be an impasse devoutly to be wished. So much for a columnist's hopes. I really should have known better.
