If a reformist lands this position in late 2012, then the moment he walks out from behind the curtain we will know whether this is a leadership prepared, at some point, to make the congress genuinely more representative; and if the answer is yes, we will know that the era of socio-political change has at last arrived. The third rule of modern Chinese politics, therefore, is: never forget number two!
The fourth rule
It is unusual to reduce Chinese politics to these basic precepts. But the approach is also one way to access the reality of an unusual system: one that seems to have little to do with the individual personalities or qualities of those involved.
The upper echelons of the PRC are now full of competent administrators with a wide range of skills that, however, they hardly ever need to demonstrate in public. The system's key requirement is elsewhere: to align the immense configuration of economic, political and power interests that it embodies to ensure its stability for (at least) the next five years.
The stakes are high. The rewards of power in modern China are huge, almost beyond imagining - but the costs of failure are cataclysmic. This is where the weight really does fall on individuals: for if you mess up, your career - and its benefit for those in your universe - comes to a shuddering halt.
The great exception here was Deng Xiaoping, who returned from political oblivion to become architect of the reform process that shaped the country's three decades of transformation. It will not happen again, and all involved in the leadership transition know it. Here is the fourth unwritten rule of modern Chinese politics: there are no second acts.
