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Pirates have also begun to view hostages as political bargaining tools. When the Panama-flagged MT Asphalt Venture was released from hijack in April 2011, eight of her 15 crew members were freed. The remaining seven crew members, all Indian citizens, will not be released until Somali pirates held in Indian custody are freed, the pirate group leader has said. Large numbers of international crew members are Indian, and a total of 46 are being held hostage by Somali pirates.

Gulf of Guinea
Meanwhile, piracy off the West African coast is emerging as a separate threat. Here the modus operandi is quite different. Eight tankers were hijacked - and another 30 attacks thwarted - in the eight months to September 2011. All eight vessels and their crews were released, usually within 72 hours. However in each instance their cargo had been stolen and at least part of their fuel siphoned off; the Cypriot-flagged Mattheos 1, hijacked off Benin in September 2011, is a case in point.

Holding ships for ransom is less common in the Gulf of Guinea because, even with the limited numbers of constabulary forces in the region, it is harder to dock a ship for several weeks while negotiating. At the same time, 'bunkering' (or theft) from pipelines is common in this oil-rich part of the world, and there is a ready market for illegally obtained oil products.

The region has many of the same attributes as Somalia: largely ungoverned maritime space, poor coastal communities and nearby shipping lanes with lucrative cargo. The Nigerian coast guard, the largest in the region, is unable to prevent attacks in its own territorial waters by domestic insurgents and criminals. And where it has been able to stymie pirate activity, this has only pushed the problem into poorly patrolled waters, particularly off Benin to the west. The insurance industry's Joint War Committee in London added the waters of Benin north of 3°N to its list of areas susceptible to 'hull war, strikes, terrorism and related perils' on 1 August. The Nigerian risk zone was extended to 200 nm offshore, suggesting that, as off the East African coast, pirates in the Gulf of Guinea are attacking increasingly further out to sea.

Unlike Somalia, however, West African states have functioning governments and these have reacted to the problem. In August, Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan and President Boni Yayi of Benin launched joint naval patrols, which were expanded into a six-month maritime security initiative dubbed Operation Prosperity in late September. Patrols involve seven Nigerian vessels, most likely NNS Nwamba (a Balsam-class offshore patrol craft), two Lurssen 57 coastal patrol craft and four Defender-class fast patrol boats. Benin is dedicating its only two patrol boats.

However, it is unlikely that this modest Task Group 11.1 will be sufficient to end piracy in the region, and international reaction has thus far been muted. The UN Security Council noted its concern on 30 August and suggested greater international attention, but this has not eventuated. The US has donated the coast guard cutter Chase to the Nigerian navy following decommissioning. AFRICOM, the US operational command for the region, has for some time been carrying out a programme of capacity building in West African states. But these moves are far short of a concerted international response to the Gulf of Guinea problem.

Solutions on shore
Recent developments attest to pirates' persistence and adaptability. Coordinated and substantial counter-piracy efforts off East Africa have diminished their success, but not curtailed their willingness to attack. The potential rewards of piracy remain great, the targets numerous and the risks relatively small, especially in the absence of effective government and alternative revenue-earning opportunities.

There has long been agreement that the only long-term solution to piracy involves action on shore - in bringing pirates to justice and redressing the conditions of poverty and lawlessness in which they thrive. For this reason, renewed efforts are being made to help track down pirates' bases and assets, and to support countries such as Kenya, the Seychelles and Mauritius where legal action to convict and imprison pirates is proving more successful.

However, growing ties between the pirates and al-Shabaab could make the situation more intractable. Kenya relies heavily on tourism, and after the recent assaults on its holiday resorts it sent more than 1,600 troops into Somalia and threatened air assaults. Two explosions in Nairobi and warnings of larger terrorist attacks followed, showing that the cycle of violence in and off the coast of Somalia continues.