Nonaggression as the nation's highest principle was most starkly shown in Japan's refusal to contribute forces to the 1991 war against Iraq after it invaded oil-rich Kuwait, despite the fact that Japan depended on the Middle East for over 90% of its oil.
Such an Alice-in-Wonderland position could exist only under the firm umbrella of the U.S. alliance. Washington's promise to use all means at its disposal, including nuclear weapons, to protect Japan's sovereignty relieved Tokyo of the need for serious defense planning. It forewent an effective national defense and the type of regional partnerships that would have allowed it to play a larger role in the strategic environment in Asia as China grew and North Korea developed nuclear weapons.
Despite this attitude, the island nation maintained a fairly large and advanced military, as a $40 billion annual defense budget was no problem for what was long the world's second largest economy. A strong Maritime Self-Defense Force was matched by an air force with leading fighters. But the military spent decades without any foreign deployments. It was left without experience and without the real power projection capabilities expected of a liberal nation dependent on freedom of navigation and regional stability for its prosperity.
By the late-1990s, geostrategic reality was crashing down on Japan's weak security posture. China was emerging as a contentious regional power, buying dozens of submarines and advanced fighters. And in 1998, North Korea launched a multi-stage ballistic missile over Japanese territory. This galvanized national fears and led to the country spending upwards of a billion dollars annually on ballistic missile defenses by the mid-2000s. Yet overall defense spending since 1999 has stayed flat or declined slightly, meaning that fewer new weapons systems are being bought due to missile defense eating up the budget.
Now, however, Tokyo seems to be connecting the dots. Leaders worry the U.S. military will not remain a credible force in coming decades in light of planned budget cuts, and have seen Washington's repeated outreach to China, North Korea and even Iran rebuffed. More countries have more powerful weapons and there is less confidence in diplomatic mechanisms to keep peace. In response, last year's National Defense Program Guidelines codified a strategic change to "active defense" and closer integration with the U.S. But only by putting meat on the bones will Japan prove its seriousness about defending itself and playing a bigger role in the community of liberal nations promoting stability in Asia. Looking forward, policies like the ban on collective self-defense will have to be reassessed.
Dealing with unfriendly neighbors is never fun. But if the result is a more realistic approach to threats on the horizon, then the ordeal will lead to a safer Japan and a safer Asia.
