Of course, the average Chinese worker wouldn’t make anywhere near $13,000, given the unequal distribution of earnings among workers. An American-sized Chinese economy in 2016 would feature, by UN projections, roughly 700 million urban residents with living standards well below those of Americans, and another 700 million rural residents with living standards that most Americans would consider dire poverty. Currently, 128 million rural Chinese live on less than the equivalent of $1 per day, if the Chinese government’s reports are accurate.
In other words, before portraying China’s rise as some sort of menace, we’d better question the value of “competing” against China’s poor citizens.
This is not to minimize the real concerns raised by the authoritarian government of a growing China. Without delving into those broad-ranging issues, it’s important to note that a Chinese government that is able to command funds and resources on a scale similar to that of the U.S. government without having to answer to its citizens the way our government does is a worrying prospect in many ways.
Nevertheless, there are good reasons to think that growth will lead to a more stable and responsible China. In the mid-'90s, the Harvard economist Robert Barro presented evidence that developing countries’ adaptation of Western economic systems fosters growth, which in turn leads to the establishment of political freedoms. “Hence, political freedom emerges as a sort of luxury good,” Barro, using economic lingo, wrote in a 1996 paper. “Rich places consume more democracy because this good is desirable for its own sake.”
China has been importing Western-style economic ideas since 1978, when Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping began introducing reforms to usher in a new economic model that would be termed “Socialism with Chinese characteristics.” If Barro’s right, China will continue to become more democratic and honor not just “economic” rights, such as property rights and free markets, but also human rights that will empower the citizenry and make Beijing more accountable for its international actions. There are constant reminders that this process is under way - Jon Huntsman, a presidential candidate and former U.S. ambassador to China, recently mentioned on the campaign trail that there are now 80 million Chinese citizen bloggers keeping tabs on the government. The power of such a movement shouldn’t be underestimated.
Perhaps that outlook is too optimistic. If it is, however, it’s worth bearing in mind the words of the investor Peter Thiel in thinking about the next few decades: “there is no good scenario for the world in which China fails.” We should hope that hundreds of millions of rural Chinese climb out of poverty in the next few years - if not for their sakes, then for our own.
(AP Photo: People rush to catch their train at Beijing station in Beijing, China, Sunday, Jan. 8, 2012.)
