Medvedev's ratings dropped even further and continued to suffer after Putin delegated to him the unenviable task of leading the even less popular United Russia party, which saw a sharp decline in performance in the 4 December parliamentary elections.
Parliamentary elections
With around 60% of Russia's 110-million-strong electorate turning out, United Russia secured a relatively poor 49.3% share of the vote, down from 64.3% in 2007. The Communist Party received 19.1%, up from 11.5%; the social-democratic 'A Just Russia' party secured 13.2%, up from 7.7%; and the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party of Vladimir Zhirinovsky gained 11.6%, up from 8.1%. United Russia's tally of 238 seats in the 450-seat Duma meant that it lost 77 seats and its two-thirds majority. The Communist Party now holds 92 seats, leaving 'A Just Russia' and the Liberal Democratic Party with 64 and 56 seats respectively.
While United Russia's performance might be seen from outside as a decisive victory, especially in the context of the recent economic crisis, in Russia it was considered an unquestionable defeat. The ruling party, in spite of its administrative, financial, media and other advantages, failed to turn the tide of growing unpopularity. An opposition campaign slogan, 'United Russia is a party of cheats and thieves', clearly resonated with popular frustration at the corruption that emanates from 'Russia Inc.' - the fusion of state bureaucracy and business that stands at the core of Putin's governance model.
Election monitors from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) delivered a damning verdict: '[The] elections were technically well-administered across a vast territory, but ... marked by the convergence of the state and the governing party.' The OSCE report said the 'contest was slanted in favour of the ruling party as evidenced by the lack of independence of the election administration, the partiality of most media and the undue interference of state authorities at different levels. This did not provide the necessary conditions for fair electoral competition.'
Those engaged in electoral fraud failed to take account of Russia's burgeoning Internet use. Web users were quick to upload footage of ballot stuffing, of organised groups being ferried around to vote in multiple polling stations, and even election officials openly filling in empty ballots in favour of United Russia. A few days after the elections it became evident that the Central Electoral Commission had also adjusted the vote count in favour of United Russia: the results it published differed significantly from those that had been recorded at individual polling stations and verified by domestic election observers.
The final regional breakdown of votes indicated that United Russia received well below 40% of the vote in most regions, but its 49% result was based on regional anomalies such as in the North Caucasus republics, where it won 99.5% support in Chechnya, 90% in Ingushetia and 91% in Dagestan. These results suggested that local officials arranged for United Russia to win the vote by exerting leverage over the local population, and channelling money and media resources in support of its campaign.
In addition, the Russian authorities attempted to limit the activities of independent monitoring organisations such as Golos - its website was hacked and there were attempts to disrupt its activists' work on election day, prompting criticism from the OSCE, the European Union and the United States.
Protests
Internet users played a central role in fuelling perceptions of widespread electoral fraud and thus sustaining the momentum behind public protests, particularly in Moscow and St Petersburg where support for United Russia was particularly low. A 10 December protest in Moscow was thought to have attracted up to 50,000 demonstrators, while the 24 December demonstration was attended by up to 100,000. Smaller protests took place across the country. The growing scale of the protests and increased media coverage forced the authorities to change their response: until then, small monthly protests of this kind had been routinely suppressed, but on 24 December there was only a light police presence. The next demonstration is planned for 4 February.
Significantly, the protests were attended in large part by Russia's new middle class and the younger Internet generation, most of whom were first-time protesters, newly engaged in the political process. Putin says his record of economic stability and growth has nurtured a growing middle class: it is now thought to exceed 50% of the population in Moscow and St Petersburg, and between 18% and 25% countrywide.
Despite the trend in modern Russia of demographic decline, the final days of the Soviet Union had seen a baby boom. Now aged 20-30, this generation is the largest demographic group and is also the most educated and Internet-literate. The older, post-war baby-boomer generation, which used to dominate the demographic profile, is rapidly shrinking. The younger generation, with the balance in its favour for the next decade, appears to have an opportunity to bring about reform from below.
The recent protests arguably represent a significant challenge to the legitimacy of Putin's regime. This had previously been undermined by dramatic events such as the sinking of the Kursk submarine in 2000, the Nord-Ost theatre siege in 2002 and the Beslan hostage crisis in 2003. But Putin, in contrast to those cases, is less likely now to be able to use the protests to justify an authoritarian response. Protests seem unlikely to stop until Moscow delivers on Medvedev's modernisation pledges: to impose the rule of law and anti-corruption measures, bring about political liberalisation and create economic opportunities outside the highly state-controlled oil and gas sectors.
Patchwork of protesters
Though united in their calls for the demise of Putin's regime - as well as for new laws, a fresh set of elections and the firing of the head of Central Electoral Commission - the protesters do not have a common vision of what should replace it and have no clear leaders.
Perhaps the most prominent of the middle-class activists is Alexei Navalny, a lawyer who has exposed many cases of official corruption in his popular blog.
Two groups widely represented in the protests are nationalists and the 'new Left'. Moderate nationalists oppose immigration and resent the large share of budget resources that is allocated to the North Caucasus to prop up corrupt local regimes, such as that of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. Resentment of these subsidies is likely to increase further in the wake of United Russia's landslide victory in the region.
The new Left - which includes the Left Front, and the National Bolshevik Party led by dissident Eduard Limonov - is campaigning against policies that have left Russia with one of the world's largest gaps between rich and poor. These groups are calling for oil and gas revenues to be spent on social policies and for some of the controversial privatisation deals of the 1990s - which concentrated tremendous wealth and key assets in the hands of a well-connected few - to be reopened.
