One year after the Egyptian military bowed to the demands of the Tahrir Square crowds and forced President Mubarak from office, Egypt is still struggling to complete the first phase of the transition process. The country is caught in a vicious circle that risks derailing its move toward democracy, leading to more uncertainty and violence. The fundamental lack of agreement on the appropriate steps of a transition process and the constant changes introduced by the military or demanded by protesters and political parties are emerging as the real stumbling blocks to the formation of a new government and legitimate institutions.
As the U.S. Congress threatens to withhold aid from the Egyptian military because of the treatment of American NGOs and their personnel, it is important to keep in mind that the progress the United States wants to see in Egypt does not depend on foreign assistance but on agreement among Egyptians about the next steps.
Egyptians agree on the need to accomplish three tasks in short order: completing the parliamentary elections; electing a president and transferring executive power from the military back to a civilian government, with the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) presumably reverting to its original role as a council that discusses military matters under the chairmanship of the president; and writing a new constitution. What they strongly disagree about is the sequencing of the three tasks.
Parliamentary elections are half complete: the lower house of parliament, the People's Assembly, is now seated. It has elected its officials and chosen the committee heads. The legislative body is preparing to debate new laws and it strongly opposes the propensity of the SCAF to continue issuing decrees. Not everybody is happy about the choice of officials and committee heads-some of the smaller secular parties walked out of a parliamentary session after receiving no posts. And the military is unhappy that parliament is already trying to flex its muscles by challenging the legality of the presidential election law the SCAF decreed in mid-January, and weighing in on the timing of presidential elections.
Paradoxically, while the People's Assembly is now ready to act and gives all signs of wanting to be a strong and combative institution rather than the rubber stamp Egyptian parliaments have been in the past, the transition is pretty much on hold while elections for the upper house, the Shura Council, take place. The council has always been a powerless institution - de jure as well as de facto - and accordingly, few Egyptians are bothering to vote. Regardless of the election, the upper house will be a truncated organization for the foreseeable future: only two-thirds of its members are elected and the rest appointed by the president, but the courts have decided the SCAF cannot make these appointments. In the meantime, drafting the constitution has been delayed until after the election.
The absurdity of elections for the Shura Council - an institution many believe should be abolished and one that may not be able to function until a president appoints its remaining members - highlights the difficulties of the present situation. The transition steps are not well designed and their sequence is flawed. The parliament is being elected to a five year-term, but the constitution will be revised shortly, possibly in only a matter of weeks according to some proposals.
