The island's strategic importance was emphasized yesterday, when Fifth Fleet commander Vice Admiral Mark Fox briefed journalists at his headquarters in Manama. He said that although Iran had built up its naval forces and prepared boats that could be used in suicide attacks, the U.S. Navy could prevent it from blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Responding to a question about whether his forces were prepared for such problems, he said, "We are very vigilant, we have built a wide range of options to give the president and we are ready...What if it happened tonight? We are ready today."
Government Tactics
Some Bahraini officials are acutely aware of international criticism and have expressed frustration at not being able to engage more with the Shiite opposition. They acknowledge that Manama has recently opened quiet compromise talks with Wifaq -- which the government nearly banned last summer -- and note that the situation is changing for the better. Yet they also admit that it could be another six months before reforms and retraining of the security forces are completed. In the meantime, the government is allowing some demonstrations to take place while moving against those that are unauthorized or interfere with normal life. According to some officials, the majority of Bahrainis are criticizing the government for allowing any demonstrations.
Al-Wifaq itself has rejected violence, but this week will indicate the strength of those who are against all compromise. Shiite activists have declared themselves determined to retake the site of the Pearl Roundabout, the intersection where a monument depicting a pearl (a symbol of Bahrain's heritage as a pearl-diving center) was demolished last year after protestors briefly occupied it. The demonstrators seem bent on provoking a draconian response by security forces, some of whom are probably ready to oblige. More than thirty people died in last year's clashes, and the total has crept up during near-nightly skirmishes since then.
A large number of casualties this week -- whether among demonstrators or security forces, who are being subjected to volleys of gasoline bombs -- could lead to a complete collapse of reforms and any hope of political compromise. It could also prompt another intervention by Riyadh, which is concerned about a contagion effect among Saudi Shiites who live in the nearby oil-producing Eastern Province. (Last week, a Saudi Shiite died during a clash with Saudi security forces.) Others fear potential Iranian action: on February 3, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei told his Friday prayer audience that the outcome of last year's protests would have been very different if Iran had intervened on behalf of Bahrain's Shiites.
Washington's Options
During his visit to Manama last week, Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor Michael Posner urged the government to do more to heal the rifts left by last year's unrest. This week, however, the tension on the streets will likely dominate the agenda. Washington is concerned that violence will set back the clock and ruin official bilateral ties, especially if U.S.-supplied weapons are deployed. Moreover, efforts to curb Iran's regional influence and hamper its nuclear program would become awkward if Bahrainis began to question whether the Fifth Fleet should even be headquartered on the island. Bahraini officials, citizens, expatriates are jittery about what is in prospect. Indeed, the great danger is that the small advances and reforms of the past few months could count for nothing.
