If he had misbehaved, he would have been seen by colleagues and public alike as a bitter former leader venting his spleen, rather than what he became -- a bitter former leader disguised as a happy little Vegemite, crusading foreign minister, everywhere, every hour of the day and night, talking and stalking. Sacking him now will not finish him or secure her because his power and popularity grows, and hers evaporates daily. He will mess even more with her head, intensify his charm offensive, wait for her to make another mistake, and she will, and he will pounce.
Agreeing to the Four Corners interview was not a mistake as such. What people were really saying in the aftermath was that she comprehensively botched the interview itself.
If she had said no to the interview she would have been conceding, to herself at least, that she wasn't up to it. Unfortunately she went on to show she wasn't.
Unlike her press conferences where she spins smartly with a tart response and turns to the next questioner cutting off the potential for hostile or tricky follow-ups, like she did yesterday, Fowler pinned her down. No wonder her leg went numb.
She gave lawyerly replies which might technically avoid a perjury charge in court. She failed the political test because she was judged not to be telling the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
She was crippled by what she said, what she didn't say, what she implied, what people construed from her performance, and how she responded to the fallout.
Then, after the deluge of criticism for agreeing to it, she tried to get out from under by saying she had been misled about the purpose of the interview -- fib upon fib upon fib -- feeding every suspicion about her honesty and aptitude.
Gillard's defence, that she gets things done, is not enough, one reason being some of those actions have made her abidingly unpopular, and even if she can do, she can't sell.
When the NSW Right retreats -- or decides as it has now, that it will not direct its members to vote for her -- then you know they have decided it's over and the fight to save her has been lost.
If Rudd is resurrected, they can argue it's righting a wrong, but there will be no end to the complications and animosity, especially if the new Rudd turns out to be exactly like the old Rudd.
He will have to decide first how and where to dispose of the casualties including Gillard and the Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer, Wayne Swan. Rudd has repeatedly and pointedly praised the work of the Ministry, implying retribution will be limited. However, Swan will be not be spared, regardless of budget preparations. Treasury already has its instructions: surplus or bust.
Then there is the carbon tax. Can Rudd walk away from it twice? Does he dump, delay or redesign, or does he have an election and seek a mandate? There will not be a new deal with the Greens, but he will need their support and that of the independents if he wants to try to settle in for a period of quiet governing. He will hope that Gillard will do what he didn't and die quietly and that the poison has not seeped so deep it will end up killing them all.
Good luck with that.
