A specter is haunting the Middle East: The specter of the nuclear bomb. Iran's potential nuclear capability worries Middle Eastern countries - including its immediate neighbors. Not only does Israel see a nuclear Iran as an existential threat, but also Arab countries - especially members of the Gulf Cooperation Council - consider an Iranian atomic bomb as an ultimate factor in changing the region's balance of power to their disadvantage.
This year an international conference will be held in Finland, on ridding the Middle East of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction (WMD). But the dream of a Middle East as a WMD free zone is fading fast. Saudi Arabia and UAE have not only tried to acquire more weaponry and equip themselves with cutting-edge military technology, but they are also justifying the idea of launching a nuclear program. Other countries in the region - including Turkey - are also on this path.
The only hope for a Middle East nuclear free-zone is to stop Iran from reaching nuclear capability. While Israeli nuclear capability primarily aims to protect a country surrounded by enemies, Iran's attempt to obtain such capability remains unjustifiable in the eyes of the West and also neighboring countries -- who have made it a priority to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions. Without Saudi Arabian and Gulf countries' intensive efforts in enforcing sanctions on Iran, the Islamic Republic would not be as economically and politically isolated as it is today. With this year's escalation in sanctions, Saudi and other Persian Gulf states have demonstrated that they are ready to compensate for the loss of Iranian oil to European markets, by meeting the shortfall. In this way harsher sanctions on Iran will have little impact on the oil market, paving the way for the sustained isolation of Iran.
The Islamic Republic has many reasons for seeking to attain nuclear weapons. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei firmly believes that the ultimate goal of the West in pressuring Iran over its nuclear program is not the end of the program itself, but an attempt to destroy the regime. For him, the Islamic Republic and the West are inherently at odds. After the decline of Communism in the world, Khamenei held that Iran represented a new pole - political Islam - opposing the other pole, namely, the West. In his Manichaeism view, the battle of good and evil will continue until good wins. Any compromise with the West, let alone normalizing the relationship, is against the nature of the Islamic Republic.
For Iran's supreme leader, what is at stake is regional supremacy. Since the U.S. and its allies have achieved hegemony in the Middle East, they are able to squeeze Iran whenever they want, on whatever issue they please. Gaining nuclear capability would change this course and make it harder for the West to impose its will on Iran.
In a recent speech on 22 February, Ayatollah Khamenei stated, "Iran's future and national interests depend on the scientific and technological advances in nuclear technology...If nations can independently achieve advances in the nuclear areas, aerospace, technology, science and industry, then there will no longer be any room for the bullying hegemony of the superpowers." He continued: "The sanctions have been there since the beginning of the Islamic Revolution, but the nuclear issue is a recent development. Therefore, [the West's] main problem is that there is a nation that is determined to become independent, a nation that is not prepared to give in to oppression, a nation that is determined to expose oppressors, a nation that wants to tell other nations that it has achieved this goal and that it will make even more accomplishments."
Compromise is a frightening word for Ayatollah Khamenei. He dislikes such tactics either in dealing with his domestic enemies or in handling foreign policy. In a meeting with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Khamenei advised that any move that weakens resistance will work against the future of Muslim nations. He reiterated: "It is necessary to constantly guard against the infiltration of compromising elements into the resistance groups." This clearly reflects what he thinks about several issues other than the Arab-Israeli conflict. In the course of the last 23 years, Khamenei successfully sabotaged all efforts to seriously engage with the U.S. or any attempt that aimed to build confidence at a diplomatic level. Former presidents Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami, who expressed their willingness to solve the nuclear standoff through diplomatic means, have been marginalized and seen as dangerous threats to the authority of the supreme leader. Khamenei has made "resistance" a sacred word and desires to be regarded in the Muslim world as the ultimate representative of the idea.
