Sarkozy's right turn seems to be an effort to court the supporters of Marine Le Pen, the candidate for the extreme-right National Front and the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen. Marine Le Pen's efforts to make her party palatable have succeeded, and she now commands a strong voting base from blue-collar workers and the middle class who see immigration as a threat to the French lifestyle.
Sarkozy has scrambled while Hollande leads in the polls. But then Sarkozy seems to relish the role of challenger. With the attention on Hollande, Sarkozy can deliver direct blows to Hollande and avoid the discussion from focusing extensively on an assessment of his presidency.
Now the front-runner, Hollande has had to flex his muscles on foreign policy and defense issues. In a speech on Sunday to outline his vision for French defense, the candidate was unconvincing and seemed ill at ease. He confirmed his plan to withdraw French forces from Afghanistan by the end of 2012. He said he would "work the issue out" at the upcoming NATO summit in Chicago, which raised eyebrows about the gap between his expectations and the reality the discussions he would have with NATO partners.
Hollande will not reassure his European and U.S. partners with the few blanket statements he has issued so far. This has led to anxiety from those partners; no one knows what to expect from him, and he does not seem ready to tell them what to expect. Hollande has a real legitimacy problem that he will need to address immediately if elected given that the Chicago summit comes within two weeks of the election. In the meantime, this weakness is an invitation for Sarkozy to highlight the success of his own foreign policy. He is quick to point out that the military operation in Libya has put France back on the map, in great part thanks to his decision to reintegrate France into NATO's military command structure. The electorate cares about France's position in the world, and does not think that should be compromised despite the economic crisis. Meanwhile, Hollande is in a tough spot. While he recognizes between the lines that Sarkozy's foreign policy has been successful, he also needs to develop his own personality on foreign policy, which does not come without risks.
On these issues, Sarkozy has a clear advantage that he has not even started using for his own good. Hollande's time to bridge the gap is running out. Rarely are elections won on foreign policy alone, but they can be lost if a candidate appears unpresidential and indecisive. Sarkozy's turn to the right was an opening for Hollande to develop a new vision of French society, which he has done with great success. He now has to prove to the French - and the world - that he is a capable leader who can contribute to the stability of the European Union, NATO, and the transatlantic relationship.
(AP Photo: French Socialist Party candidate for the 2012 presidential elections Francois Hollande, waves a French national flag, during a campaign meeting, in Marseille, southern France, Wednesday, March 14, 2012.)
