This is also a signal to the Taliban and other extremist groups that waiting out American forces might no longer be as credible an option as it may have once seemed. Washington's new message will have particular resonance in India and Pakistan as ties between the two South Asian neighbours remain the most important fault line in shaping Afghanistan's future. Pakistan will come under renewed pressure to articulate a long-term policy of renouncing ties with extremist groups. Islamabad's hedging strategy is no longer workable. Amidst the growing challenge of the Taliban to Pakistan, the country faces a dilemma about collusion between Afghan and Pakistan Taliban. Pakistan is recognizing the difficulty of managing post-America neighborhood with more than 40 million Pashtuns living in the mountainous borderlands of Pakistan and Afghanistan asserting their profile. Moreover the larger reality is that Pakistan is today weaker than anytime in its history. The economy is in shambles, the sectarian divide is growing, the extremist groups it nurtured are turning against the state, and it has no real friends left. Even China prefers to maintain a respectful distance.
It's not surprising that even the Pakistani army chief speaks of the need for "peaceful coexistence" with India. Fearing its own marginalization in post-2014 Afghanistan, Pakistan has signaled that it's ready to end the blockade of NATO ground-supply routes to Afghanistan.
New Delhi, for its part, has been at a loss trying to respond to rapidly changing realities in its immediate neighbourhood. Now that some clarity has been restored to the American posture, New Delhi must put its own house in order. India has not had a very consistent policy towards Afghanistan over the last decade. Part of this has been a function of the rapidly evolving ground realities in Afghanistan, but large part has also been due to India's inability to articulate its vital interests in Afghanistan to allies or adversaries. There is an overarching lack of coherence in Indian response as New Delhi seems to be perpetually on the defensive, first making Washington the sole pivot of its outreach to Kabul and then petulantly complaining about American unreliability. On the one hand, India has been signaling to the US that it views long-term American presence in Afghanistan as integral to regional security. On the other, it's been reaching out to make common cause with the Iranians, who want to see complete US withdrawal from the region.
Iran has been putting pressure on Afghanistan not to proceed with ratification of the US-Afghan strategic partnership pact. Even as India has signed a strategic partnership agreement with Afghanistan promising to enhance its role in Afghan security, it has at the same time reduced its economic footprint. In the absence of governmental support, the Indian private sector, despite its keenness to invest in Afghanistan, has been gradually withdrawing from the country for fear of becoming a target of the Taliban.
As a result, New Delhi has not only complicated its own future options, but also confused allies about whether India can be a credible partner in Afghanistan. Indian interests converge with those of the US in Afghanistan to a remarkable degree in ensuring that the Taliban does not get a foothold in Kabul and Afghanistan does not once again emerge as a launching pad to carry out attacks against India. The Washington-Kabul strategic partnership agreement provides India with some crucial space for diplomatic maneuvering so as to regain the lost ground and expand its footprint in a neighboring state where it remains hugely popular despite its inconsistent policy approach. The recent attempt to beef up intelligence sharing between India and Afghanistan is the first step in the operationalization of the Indo-Afghan strategic partnership, but more concrete steps are needed to ensure that New Delhi maintains a substantial presence and acts as a reliable partner of the US.
India and Pakistan have already started talking after a long lull, and this could be a precursor to some sort of a joint engagement on Afghanistan, dampening the rivalry between the two neighbors. At the same time, India should underscore its continuing role in ensuring sustainable economic development and capacity building in Afghanistan. Those who want New Delhi to step up its role in Afghanistan in consonance with its growing global weight must be reassured about India's reliability as a partner.
As Washington and Kabul turn a new page in the Afghanistan saga, New Delhi should be keen to take this opportunity to become a more credible actor in its neighborhood. Washington has played its hand. It's up to New Delhi to respond adequately.
