The oscillating veto behavior in the UN Security Council reflects China's expanding economic engagement with the world and the effect of increasing overseas Chinese migration to all corners of the globe, including some of its most unstable and conflict-ridden parts. China's veto actions also illustrate the necessity to accommodate demands from other state actors to shoulder broader responsibilities for safeguarding international security and recognize the emerging norm of responsibility to protect, or R2P.
Thus, several factors - some new and gaining traction - influence China's alterations of its absolutist stance on sovereignty and non-interference.
Some trends are apparent. For China to accept intervention inside the territory of another state, the issue must go through the UN Security Council, and regional organizations must favor the actions.
Moreover, one or several of the following four questions must be answered in the affirmative: First, is there significant risk of military intervention in an area of Chinese economic influence? Second, are the level of Chinese investments and prospects of resource extraction high or promising? Third, are Chinese lives in harm's way? Fourth, will China's image among the community of states and in the court of worldwide public opinion be negatively affected?
In the case of Libya, China accepted intervention due its own commercial interests, the risks posed to Chinese lives, a negative fallout in world opinion and growing pressure from the West and the Arab League.
In Syria, only the last and arguably least important factor for China - an image problem - exists. Even if the Syrian intra-state conflict is highly internationalized through the world's mass media, the indecisive Western position on R2P increases the likelihood for Beijing to stick to its traditional stance of non-intervention.
Also, the interest of veto ally Russia was a priority, compounded by a sense of "betrayal" by Western countries' interpretation of UN Security Council Resolution 1973 and their swift implementation no-fly zone over Libya by NATO members Great Britain and France.
Recent and ongoing crises in Libya, Syria and the two Sudanese states show how case-dependent China's evolving stance on both state sovereignty and non-interference has become. Clearly, China has moved away from an archconservative and principled stance on sovereignty.
But its future position is not so clear-cut and could continue to evolve with China's increasing clout in world affairs and groping for new footing in staking positions on violent conflicts inside territories of other states. At times, as in the case of Libya, China's changing status may necessitate a less rigid approach to sovereignty issues. On other occasions, void of material interests and concerns for Chinese lives, the old-style rigid posture will feel more comfortable.
The implications of China's evolving position on state sovereignty may entail a more "responsible stakeholder" approach as wished for by many Western states. Beijing, however, needs to balance its perceived obstructionism against perceptions held by developing countries of Chinese acquiescence to Western hegemony. Also adding to the uncertainty is that further erosion of China's principle on sovereignty and non-interference may lead to a flexible approach that suits Beijing - but goes against national interests in the transatlantic world.
