However, the opposition may demand something in return for their votes. That something could range from fairly modest adjustments to the government bill to fix social security, to a demand that Noda dissolve parliament and call for a new election - perhaps as early as this summer, a full year before the government actually has to go to the voters again.
On the other hand, the threat of a “snap” election frightens many of his own party members, a large number of them freshmen legislators with weak support at home. That may be enough to overcome their reluctance to buck Ozawa - to whom many owe their seats through his electioneering skills - or concerns that they may be punished by the voters for doubling the national sales tax.
The euphoria that surrounded the party following its historic victory three years ago faded long ago. The ruling party has already gone through two prime ministers and, out of necessity, scrapped much of the election manifesto it ran on, including a promise not to raise the sales tax in its first term of office.
It has had to deal with the aftermath of what has been termed the worst disaster to hit Japan since the end of World War II. The imperative to pay for reconstruction costs in the parts of Japan inundated by the March 11, 2011 earthquake and tsunami has forced the DPJ to abandon proposals such as eliminating highway tolls.
Voters unhappy with both main political parties are groping for fresh voices and upstarts. Of the new movements, the most threatening emanates from Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto’s Osaka Restoration Party, which may morph into a new Japan Restoration Party come election time.
Some pundits believe that the new group could win as many as 50 seats in the Kansai region (Osaka, Kyoto and Kobe) in the next general election, wiping out the main parties in that vital area. The fact that the prime minister is widely expected this week to order two nearby nuclear power plants to restart in order to prevent power shortages this summer isn’t exactly helpful for Noda, either.
If nothing else, Noda is focused. He has long proclaimed that passing the consumption tax increase was the overriding goal of his administration, more important to him than some of the other critical issues facing Japan - such as dealing with electric power shortages, joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership and many others ideas.
Whatever happens in the next few weeks, the prime minister must defend his job at the next regularly scheduled party congress in September. If he can get past crunch time, he may have a good chance of winning reelection and staying on as premier. If not, look for a fourth DPJ premier in as many years – or maybe somebody entirely new.
(AP Photo: Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda reacts during a televised news conference at the Prime Minister's official residence in Tokyo Friday, June 8, 2012.)
