Turkey has also commented on the predicament the Circassians of Syria. Turkey, home to the largest community of Circassians in the world, has offered repatriation to Syrian-based Circassians. The main condition, and what is most detrimental to their repatriation effort, is that the Syrian Circassians would have to register as ethnic Turks, something that the majority of Syrian Circassians are not be willing to do. As Turkey is home to the majority of the global Circassian community it is a country where they can feel content in their role in society. In addition, the U.S. and Canada are both contemplating the idea of Syrian Circassian repatriation, however this is only to apply pressure on Russia and to exploit the issue should Russia not handle it appropriately.
The issue of 'tribes' also appears in the plight of the Syrian Circassians. Currently, the role of tribal affiliation is of the most importance to the Assad regime in a time of such uncertainty, yet it is also through tribal links that support has been drummed up against the Assad regime. In a show of appreciation to Russia for their handling of Syria on the international stage, the Assad regime coerced Syrian tribal Sheikhs to meet the Russian Ambassador to Syria and offered with gifts. In Georgia, President Saakashvili claims a 'tribal affiliation' with the Syrian Circassians (specifically those from Abkhazia) in a bid for political leverage.
Russia has repatriated groups who have roots to Russia, especially in sparely populated areas. The Northern Caucuses have witnessed years of Islamic insurgency and an aggressive Counter Terrorism campaign, particularly in Karbadino-Balkaria, Chechnya, Ingushetia, and Dagestan. The return of a group of moderate Muslims, having lived in a secular Syria, would allow Russia to re-connect with many of these groups from the North Caucuses and nurture a political relationship much akin to that in modern day Chechnya with Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov. But in a show of force, the Kremlin is making life difficult for Circassians. Circassians of Turkish nationality living in the North Caucuses have been arrested for not relinquishing their Turkish citizenship. There are also numerous examples of Russian harassment of Circassian populations in the Northern Caucuses and could be part of Russian policy to deter Circassians from returning en-masse to their homeland.
In the same way that the Syrian opposition assemble primarily through tribal connections, the Circassians are a single unit within the Syrian military and desertions are kept to a minimum. Through the Circassian community elders, they are keeping a united front, with Circassian repatriation already happening but largely against the course of the greater Circassian community. Open letters have been written to the Russian government with the help of Circassian organizations, tribal leaders and councilors from their respective home regions.
Clearly, Russia will likely face a huge problem with the Circassian issue as the current regime in Syria crumbles. Russia needs to make a decision to get on the correct side of history. Russia's support for Syria is clearly problematic and is causing the Kremlin to be alienated from much of the region. Russia's role in Lebanon and Iran has caused ties to freeze with much of the Gulf States, especially Saudi Arabia. Overall, the issue of the Circassians is a long dispute for Russia that is now arising to prominence. Given the problems in the Caucasus today, Russia will not want to add another problem by misplaying the Circassian card. If repatriation were not to happen, it may very well further inflame anti-Russian sentiment in the Northern Caucusus. Although the Circassians, to date, have been immune to strict 'Vahhabist' teachings that the Chechens and Dagestanis have been influenced by, regional nationalist tendencies without the religious agenda may erupt in the Northern Caucasus. This phenomenon is part of the 'Syria effect' that will not only impact Russia but many other countries surrounding current day Syria.
