Peña Nieto's market-friendly agenda underscores his concerted effort to cut ties with the PRI of old. On the fiscal front, Pena Nieto has vowed to broaden the tax base by, among other things, simplifying tax collection and streamlining fiscal exemptions. It is an important reform: Mexico's federal government depends on taxes from its oil production to finance much of its federal budget. Getting this reform in the books would require a simple majority in Congress, Credit Suisse's Cervera points out.
Opening the country's 3-million-barrels-per-day oil monopoly to foreign investment, however, might be more complicated, as it will require amending the Mexican constitution. The reform, as outlined by Peña Nieto, would allow foreign companies to invest with Pemex to jointly develop oil fields. Foreign companies would also be able to invest in the company's downstream businesses, including its refining and petrochemical units. Peña Nieto has indicated that he is confident he can achieve what would be a historic reform ahead of his December inauguration.
Delivering on this ambitious agenda, though, partly rests on the PRI's ability to maintain a working majority in Congress. If it doesn't, then the PRI may be forced to do deals with its opponents, such as Lopez Obrador, who lost the 2006 election by a razor-thin margin and has voiced strong opposition to opening up Pemex to private investment.
PRI and the allied Green Party won a slight plurality with 232 deputies, down from the 262 they held in the previous legislature. The PRD and its allies, led by Lopez Obrador, secured 140 seats and the PAN 118.
Overall, analysts say, the election results reflect the country's deep frustration with the increasingly gruesome killings and lack of job opportunities under the PAN. The electorate is convinced the PRI was more effective at implementing reforms and, more importantly, at keeping the violence in check.
"They want a party that knows how to manage things," says Christopher Wilson, an associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
Given the country's frustration with the current state of affairs, Peña Nieto will be expected to start delivering on his campaign promises months before he even takes office.
Come September, when Mexico's new Congress is inaugurated, the burden to implement these reforms will "fall on President Peña Nieto but also on his party," says Cervera of Credit Suisse. "The challenge is clear: deliver, or face the music six years from now."
