Assad's strength is not simply rhetorical. Despite defections, the Syrian security forces have proved to be more cohesive and resilient than many in the West had supposed. Assad has also benefitted from the crisis becoming mired in a fierce regional struggle between Iran, on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States on the other. Iran is providing pivotal economic and military support for the Assad regime. As former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said, Iran is as important, if not more important, than Russia: While Assad is isolated internationally and regionally, the support from Iran as well as Iraq has provided a lifeline.
Conceding that the peace initiative has failed, Annan has shifted from trying to achieve a ceasefire to focusing on political mediation between the Syrian government and the opposition. But even before Annan left his meeting with Assad, the Syrian National Council had issued a statement disagreeing with Annan's decision to involve Iran. The Iranians, SNC wrote on Facebook, "cannot be part of the solution unless their positions change radically." Other opposition figures vehemently attacked Annan's outreach to Iran.
Despite Annan's persistent efforts, the odds are against a political breakthrough. The trust deficit between the two warring camps has grown, leading both the opposition and the Assad regime to view the struggle as existential and hunker down for a prolonged fight. The opposition has repeatedly stressed unwillingness to negotiate with the Syrian regime unless Assad steps down. Assad still acts on the premise that there's a security solution, continuing to deploy massive force to crush the opposition with little success.
For all these reasons, protracted armed conflict is likely to continue. The lack of credible information about the Syrian regime's machinations makes predictions hazardous. Starving Assad out of power is a working strategy, not a proven tactic. Although pressing sanctions are bleeding the Syrian economy, the government has found means to adjust. Syria can sustain itself only as long as Iran maintains its current level of support, increasingly challenging because of its own suffocating economic sanctions.
Ultimately, the balance of power in Syria will determine whether Assad goes. Can Assad maintain cohesiveness of his narrowing ruling coalition? Though Assad's days are not as few as Clinton suggests, there are signs that the regime is not durable and that the likelihood of a rupture within is real.
The flight of the middle and professional classes, in addition to senior officers and senior diplomats, is proof of growing doubts about Assad's capacity to survive and his coercive power. Tlass' and Fares's defections seem to be more related to the destruction in their hometowns rather than a change of heart about Assad. Nevertheless, recent defections in the military, along with loss of territory, have not reached a critical mass that threatens the regime's immediate survival.
There is a standoff between the opposition and the Assad regime, neither capable of destroying the other. The failure of international diplomacy means more violence and a bloody, hot summer in this war-torn country.
