We cannot fathom the real results of Libya's July 7 election until the elected independents form a governing coalition with party members in the coming weeks (120 seats were reserved for independents, 80 for party members). But the nearly universal surprise amongst the commentariat at the resounding success of the most moderate, Western-friendly parties in Libya's first free nationwide election invites a reconsideration of how we think successful democracies come about.
Despite much courage and sacrifice, our efforts to plant liberal institutions in the Near East have often been frustrated by a lack of democratic mores. A culture is not changed overnight.
If Alexis de Tocqueville's Democracy in America is to be believed, the hopeful prospects for democracy in Libya go well beyond the success of this election. Justly famous for predicting the dominance of the United States, Tocqueville's analysis reveals a startling pattern that should make us pay very close attention to what is now occurring in the wake of Libya's homegrown revolution.
Tocqueville's 700 pages can be distilled into eight elements he saw working together to make America something altogether new in world history. America had:
• Social equality
• The confluence rather than the opposition of liberty and religion
• Nationalism tempered by the pull of administrative decentralization
• A dynamic propensity for civic (sub-political) association
• A privileged role for women in family and civic life
• Respect for law; strong judges and lawyers
• Widespread education
• A rich geography unharried by neighbors
Libya, unique among countries of the Arab Spring, appears to have all these elements. It may well be far along the path to a flourishing democracy.
Equality: Aristotle recalls the tyrant's advice: Always cut off the tallest stalks. Tyrants maintain their power by making the people equal. Muammar Gaddafi's 42-year reign marked an absurd devotion to this rule. Fearing any who might become prominent in their own right, he commanded that influential citizens - ministers of state, representatives in the People's Union, even athletes - be referred to by numbers rather than by name! By enforcing so much equality, the tyrant Gaddafi unwittingly improved the local soil for the seeds of democracy.
Liberty and Religion: Like 18th Century Americans, Libyans are a deeply religious people. Unfortunately, news coverage that fits a precast narrative of religious fanaticism has left the wrong impression. Witness coverage of the June 7 demonstration in Benghazi's Freedom Square (where the revolution began). We saw pictures of 300 Kalashnikov-toting young men gathered from all corners of Libya waving the black flags of jihad, claiming that democracy is atheistic, insisting that only a government that enforces religion is legitimate. Check. It fits the narrative; end of coverage.
What wasn't widely reported was the locals' reaction to this demonstration: A spontaneous, social media-driven counter-demonstration that made the hard-liners go home. Freedom Square was flooded by thousands of Benghazis - many of them women in veils - who were horrified at this attempt to redefine their revolution and their religion. The counter-demonstrators were Muslims, too; they see Islam as compatible with free democracy. They appear to sense - like Tocqueville - that religion is ultimately more persuasive when it is not entwined with the power of the state.
Imagine the spectacle of hundreds of armed young militiamen turned away by the unarmed women and men of Benghazi! This was a teachable moment. It reveals the Libyan character in the wake of the revolution. Indeed, days before the election, Libya's top cleric went on TV to issue a fatwa instructing citizens not to vote for what he called "secular" parties. The overwhelming majority of Libyans promptly went out and ignored this advice.
