The collapse of the Rutte government might mark a watershed for attitudes on Europe. The Labour Party was not part of the ad hoc coalition of five parliamentary parties that worked out a package of cuts and reforms that would allow the Netherlands to keep within the 3% budget deficit limit in 2013. It is unlikely to adopt a eurosceptic line, but will oppose what it says is the neo-liberal direction of the EU, while also adhering to the goal of achieving a balanced budget over time. The Socialist Party will also continue to oppose austerity policies from the EU but it may change its tone with an eye on possible future coalition negotiations. The Freedom Party will continue to attack both the euro and the EU itself in the hope of winning over an explicitly eurosceptic portion of the popular vote. Greens, progressive liberals and the Christian democrats will defend Europe and the further transfer of competences to Brussels. Rutte's VVD will continue to support the EU but likes to keep a certain distance nevertheless.
Although only Wilders' Freedom Party wants to sever ties with the EU, few in the pragmatic Netherlands support the idea of the EU as a transfer union, and populists from the right as well as the left oppose austerity if it is merely EU-imposed. Pragmatism also dictates against the creation of a smaller Eurozone, with most parties concerned about the financial risks involved and the damage this might cause to the internal market. So far the Dutch have accepted the EU's search for incremental solutions without drastic treaty change by relying on the European Council. This might well remain the preferred option given the resistance of Dutch voters to drastic steps towards integration. A large majority of the Dutch Parliament has spoken out against political union and it is unlikely this would change any time soon. The creation of a ‘eurocore' appears not to be in the interest of the Netherlands since it would weaken the role of the communitarian institutions, might damage the internal market and would limit the possibilities to check German and French power.
The evolution of Dutch pragmatism
These trends will play into shaping the future role of the Netherlands within the EU, with Dutch ambitions limited and priority given to safeguarding the economic benefits of integration. The rise of the Socialist Party is likely to result in a more intense debate on the social consequences of Eurozone policies (as can be seen from recent Dutch support for the €120 billion growth fund). Although the intergovernmental nature of the reaction to the crisis has allowed the Dutch government to bypass objections to greater integration, it has also led to disquiet over the democratic deficit this has involved and the extra power that it has given to larger countries. Any new government after the September election will continue to demand adherence to rules, but probably not as bluntly as the past government. This means that the Netherlands might be prepared to kick the can of the euro crisis down the road for some time to come.
It is becoming increasingly clear that the EU may be undergoing drastic changes, but the Dutch are likely to support significant deeper integration only if it involves the entire EU, rather than just the Eurozone. Dutch allies - such as the UK, Denmark and Sweden - all lie outside the Eurozone, and Germany has been an unreliable partner on several occasions due to its historical pro-European course and links to France (for example the deal between France and Germany on a banking tax at the summit last June went against the Dutch-British position that this would threaten the viability of the financial sector). The Dutch will probably feel threatened by deeper integration with the EU17 while traditional allies are outside the Eurozone. There is also wariness that even if the euro crisis can be solved, the EU will become a permanent transfer union. Initial estimates from civil servants suggest that 3% of GPD could be paid to less competitive countries. Resistance to a permanent transfer union and fears over the implications of Eurozone-based integration are the most likely drivers of scepticism over the future trajectory of the EU for the pro-internal market pragmatists of the Netherlands.
