Japan responded to President Lee’s visit by recalling its ambassador. Planned high level exchanges, such as Prime Minister Yoshihiku Noda’s scheduled visit to Korea in September, are on hold. Tokyo proposed taking the dispute to the International Court of Justice for adjudication. That is an empty threat, as both sides must abide by the decision, and neither is willing to do so.
The latest flare-up came at a time when Japan is also embroiled in controversy over the disputed islands in the East China Sea that the Japanese call the Senkaku and the Chinese call Daioyu. That was precipitated by Tokyo’s nationalistic governor Shintaro Ishihara’s proposal to have the city buy three of the uninhabited islands that are private property (even though nobody is allowed on them).
Prime Minister Noda immediately offered to have the national government buy the islands, which in fact Ishihara had promised to cede to the national government anyway. (The owners, however, claimed they would only deal with Ishihara.)
It is not clear what nationalizing the Senkaku would accomplish aside from poking Beijing in the eye, since the issue is sovereignty, not ownership. Eye-poking is usually justification enough for the controversial, anti-Chinese nationalist Ishihara. He may think that change of ownership might make it easier for right-wingers to make provocative visits.
The Japanese government discourages anyone, Japanese or Chinese, from visiting the islands, since they are bound to rouse strong feelings on one side or the other. This includes right-wing lawmakers from Japan as well as buccaneers from the Chinese world. Japanese police detained several Hong Kong activists on Wednesday after they planted a Chinese flag on one of the islands. China called for their unconditional release, and pledged to lodge an official complaint with Tokyo over the incident.
Fifteen years ago a similar mission left Hong Kong and succeeded in temporarily occupying the island. The picture with the usually antagonistic flags of China and Taiwan side by side took up the whole front page of the South China Morning Post under the banner headline: “Mission Accomplished."
Beijing’s preferred method of protesting Japan’s occupation is to send semi-official fishing patrol craft into Japan’s claimed territorial waters. Two years ago one of them rammed a coast guard vessel, setting off a major row between Tokyo and Beijing. The Japanese arrested the errant fishing boat captain, who was released shortly thereafter.
It's hardly a coincidence that all of the antagonists are facing elections (or change of leaders, as in China) in the coming months, and the participants are bent on parading their devotion to these historic claims.
Korea’s next presidential election is scheduled for December. While Lee is not allowed to run for a second term, he undoubtedly wants to make things easier for his party. Japan’s election has not been set but is expected to occur in October. That same month the Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will meet to pick its next generation of leaders. Cooler heads might prevail after leadership changes - or tensions might escalate.
