Well, you might if you were facing the overwhelming power of China, the regional top dog that seems as determined as Aquino to have its way. And this is where the United States comes in. The U.S. has not taken a position on who owns what, but has said that disputes must be resolved peacefully and diplomatically rather than by force. The United States has by far the most powerful navy in the Pacific, and the smaller claimants to the South China Sea islands are hoping the U.S. Navy will act as regional policeman, shielding them from Chinese bullying.
President Barack Obama's famous 'pivot' to the Pacific is now on the line. Should the United States simply stand by and let China take all of the disputed islands, it would lose credibility in the region and around the world. Yet China has refused to negotiate the fate of the islands, and is building up its power to project force.
As it is with China's non-negotiable claim over Taiwan, this is a moment for American steadfastness as well as flexibility and delicacy in its dealings with the power of China. In Taiwan's case, America recognizes that there is only one China, but says that re-integration with the mainland should be mutually agreed upon and free from force.
In the case of conflicting claims in the South China Sea, the United States should insist that China come to the negotiating table and commit to international arbitration as to who owns what. This will not be easy, and will entail a nuanced approach. Some, such as Michael Auslin of the American Enterprise Institute, have suggested that as a first step the United States should cut off military-to-military dialog 'until it gets answers' on how large China's military garrisons on the disputed islands may be.
'The U.S. should consider postponing future annual Security and Economic Dialogs,' he says.
This would be the wrong approach. Military-to-military dialog is the first thing that gets suspended when the United States wants to get tough with China and it's always been a mistake. It is very helpful to have our military and China's talking to each other, and it would be nose cutting rather than face saving to postpone security and economic dialog.
It is in everybody's interest to keep China talking, to engage it as much as possible, not only in coming to an agreement in the South China Sea but in other potential sore points as well. To suspend dialog only empowers China's hawks and weakens its doves.
