News of Morsi's gambit with the military obfuscated another news item less than 24 hours earlier: Prince Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani of Qatar, on a visit to Egypt, deposited $2 billion of US dollars in Egypt's Central Bank, a much needed injection for Egypt's foreign reserves. Once more, Qatar is proving to be the Brotherhood's greatest foreign ally, yet not necessarily Egypt's, and one might suspect that the move received - ex-ante or ex-post - Qatari blessing. Relations with the Gulf emirate could not be better. The Qatar-based broadcast news service, Al Jazeera, has been a stalwart supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood since the revolution, acting as its de facto channel when Egypt's national television was SCAF-dominated.
Relations with Saudi Arabia, with whom the Brotherhood has historically had tense relationships, are more complicated. There's undoubtedly some febrility in Riyadh regarding Morsi's consolidation of powers. Establishment newspaper Al-Shark Al-Awsat published an editorial warning that Morsi "enjoys limitless power, and is even more powerful than former president Hosni Mubarak, even at the height of his reign!"
Amid Morsi's visit to Mecca for the Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit in mid-August were muted signs of tension. For one, Saudis sent the relatively low-ranking governor of Jeddah to greet Morsi at the airport. During the summit, Morsi warmly embraced Ahmadinejad, and in a climate of possible Egyptian-Iranian rapprochement, Morsi is due to travel to Iran to attend the Non-Aligned Countries Movement summit at the end of August. Iranian media have hailed Morsi's rise, as the Muslim Brotherhood has been more indulgent towards Iranian nuclear brinkmanship than the Gulf countries - a development not favored by the Saudis.
Yet Egypt under Morsi has also broken away from Iranian support for Syria. Also at the OIC summit, Morsi stated that it was time for regime change in Syria, a first for him. The president could be signaling the return of a more regionally involved, pan-Arab Egypt.
Economic conditions in Egypt and dependence on US foreign aid could dictate Morsi's outreach. Egypt under the Muslim Brotherhood may turn out to be more moderate and cautious than many had assumed.
Morsi's reshuffling of army leadership can't be viewed as a Muslim Brotherhood takeover. After all, he's Egypt's elected leader, and any reduction in SCAF's power is a step forward. The consolidation of power increases decision predictability, both politically and economically. Nevertheless, legislative powers should be restored to the parliament. Concentration of powers with the presidency is unsustainable and can be tolerated, at home and abroad, only for a brief period. Any international legitimacy Morsi acquires will rapidly dissipate if his hold on power transforms into attempt at totalitarian accumulation.
