The Middle East example serves as a reminder that while transitions to democracy ultimately bring long-term stability, they do not happen overnight and require a sustained commitment by domestic actors and the international community, as backsliding along the way can lead to renewed cycles of repression and revolt. The process is difficult even in the smallest country, so it is hard to imagine a greater undertaking than building democracy in China.
The enormity of the problem-the potential economic and geopolitical repercussions of a Chinese crisis-may be part of the reason why U.S. political leaders seem loathe to discuss it. Fortunately, democracy has ways of forcing us to face uncomfortable questions. The United States has outlived so many dictatorships in part because its policymaking is constantly honed by open discussion and public scrutiny. And while the effect of bearish talk on the economy is a concern, it is important to note that markets cope better with negative predictions than negative surprises.
In that spirit, the U.S. presidential candidates should answer, or at least show signs of contemplating, questions like the following:
* What is your assessment of China's current economic outlook?
* If an economic crisis were to occur, would it be likely to prompt serious social or political upheaval?
* What are some of the scenarios that could unfold?
* How should the United States react to protect its own interests, those of the Chinese people, and global stability in the short term? In the long term?
* What should the United States do now to prepare for or influence these possibilities?
No one expects Romney or Obama to predict the future or tie themselves to elaborate hypotheticals. But the American people need to know that they are aware of and thinking seriously about one of the major foreign policy challenges of the next four years: a rapidly changing China.
