In Yemen, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has exploited the fall of Ali Abdallah Saleh's dictatorship to take over remote parts of the south and east of the country. It lost control of several towns to government counterattacks this summer, but it struck back with deadly attacks on security targets in Sana'a, Aden and other major cities. AQAP has launched three attempts to attack targets in the United States since 2009 - only luck and good intelligence cooperation between the US, UK and Saudi Arabia have foiled them so far. Increasingly drones are attacking AQAP in the deserts of Yemen, killing operative Anwar al Awlaki and Inspire editor Samir Khan, both US-born. Awlaki still inspires - a Bangladeshi arrested last week for planning to bomb the Federal Reserve Bank in New York says he was a follower.
In Iraq the 2007 surge was supposed to destroy al-Qaeda's franchise, the Islamic State of Iraq. Despite enormous pressure and repeated decapitation of senior leadership, the group has survived and recovered. It appeals to the Sunni Arab minority, which feels oppressed by the Shia-dominated government. Al-Qaeda in Iraq focuses its attacks on the Shia regime, which it labels a modern "Safavid evil den," a reference to the Shia Persian Empire in the 17th century that ruled Iran and Iraq. Its leader, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, has promised more attacks in Iraq and in the United States.
Al-Qaeda in Iraq is also working to export its jihad into the chaos and civil war in Syria. Zawahiri called for jihadists across the world to flock to Syria this spring to join the uprising against the Bashar al Assad regime and the Alawite minority that supports it. For al-Qaeda, Assad and the Alawis are a perfect target: Many Sunnis believe Alawis to be a deviationist sect of Islam akin to Shiism that should be suppressed. While al-Qaeda is a small part of the opposition in Syria, it brings skills in bomb-making and suicide operations.
Now jihadist websites are reporting every day that new al-Qaeda "martyrs" have died in the fighting in Damascus and Aleppo from Saudi Arabia, Palestine and Egypt. Reliable reports from journalists speak of bands of jihadists operating in the country with a loose affiliation to al-Qaeda and composed of Muslim fanatics from as far away as Pakistan, Bangladesh and elsewhere.
The longer the civil war in Syria goes on, the more al-Qaeda will benefit from the chaos and sectarian polarization. It will also benefit from the spillover of violence from Syria into Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Jordan that's all but inevitable.
Al-Qaeda's success in capitalizing on revolutionary change in the Arab World comes despite a lack of broad popular support. It remains an extremist movement that appeals only to a small minority. But terrorism is not a popularity contest. Al-Qaeda today is stronger at the operational level in the Arab World than it has been in years, and its prospects for getting even stronger are rich.
